We assess the long-term economic impact of the new regulatory standards (the Basel III reform), answering the following questions. (1) What is the impact of the reform on long-term economic performance? (2) What is the impact of the reform on economic fluctuations? (3) What is the impact of the...

We use a joint model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics to estimate inflation risk premia in the United States and the euro area. To sharpen our estimation, we include in the information set macro data and survey data on inflation and interest rate expectations at various future...

This paper estimates the size and dynamics of inflation risk premia in the euro area, based on a joint model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics. Information from both nominal and index-linked yields is used in the empirical analysis. Our results indicate that term premia in the euro...

This paper investigates why the slope of the yield curve predicts future economic activity in Germany and the United States. A structural VAR is used to identify aggregate supply, aggregate demand, monetary policy and inflation scare shocks and to analyse their effects on the real, nominal and...

This paper analyses the effect of measurement error in the output gap on efficient monetary policy rules in a simple estimated model of the US economy. While it is a well-known result that such additive uncertainty does not affect the optimal feedback rule in a linear-quadratic framework, it is...

In the identified VAR literature the role of the exchange rate in measuring monetary policy shocks has often been neglected. However, many open economies find it useful to target the exchange rate. In such a regime exchange rate innovations will better capture domestic monetary policy shocks....

The work presented in this paper falls into two parts. First, using a simple model and within the context of the central bank's objective of price stability, it is shown that the optimal monetary response to unexpected changes in asset prices depends on how these changes affect the central...

In this paper we compare the effects of monetary policy on output and prices in the G-7 countries using a parsimonious macroeconometric model comprising, output, prices and a short-term interest rate. We identify monetary policy shocks by assuming that they do not affect real output...

During the European exchange market turmoil in 1992-93 it was evident that speculative attacks tended to spread across currencies. Using a twocountry version of the model developed by Flood and Garber (1984) we show how a speculative attack against one currency may accelerate the "warranted"...

This paper studies 1, 3, 6 and 12-month Euro-rates for 17 countries using between 10 and 30 years of data. Term spreads contain information about future short-term rates in all 51 regressions that we estimate. Furthermore, in 35 cases we accept the expectations hypothesis. Using cross-sectional...