This paper discusses the money creation mechanisms in emerging markets with special focus on external transactions. We argue that one should not rule out the possibility that fluctuations in the loans-to-deposits and non-core liabilities ratios are driven by the banks. We also argue that, under...

This study examines the expanding role of fiscal policy at a time of financial crisis. It analyses the stimulative fiscal measures of the Russian government in 2008-2010 and compares these with similar actions taken in other countries. The risks and limitations associated with the development...

We review some aspects of financial dollarization in Russia, applying the main relevant theories to analyze the dynamics of several dollarization indicators. An econometric model of the short run dynamics of deposit and loan dollarization is estimated for the last decade. We find that ruble...

In the spirit of Borio et al. (2014) we present a model that incorporates information contained in diverse variables when estimating sustainable output growth. For this purpose, we specify a state-space model representing a multivariate HP-filter that links cyclical fluctuation of GDP with...

We estimate money demand models for certain monetary aggregates across different institutional sectors (a novelty for the Russian case). Our results comprise a collection of money demand equations that include different combinations of explanatory variables. Comparing the validity of these...

We apply recently developed early warning indicators systems to a cross-section of emerging markets. We find that, with little or no modification, models designed to predict asset price booms/busts in advanced countries may be useful for emerging markets. The concept of monitoring a set of asset...

We apply empirical modelling set-ups developed to capture the hysteresis effect in the data on deposit dollarization in a cross-section of emerging market economies. Specifically, we estimate a nonlinear relationship that determines two equilibrium levels of deposit dollarization depending on...

Real-time assessment of quarterly GDP growth rates is crucial for evaluation of economy's current perspectives given the fact that respective data is normally subject to substantial publication delays by national statistical agencies. Large information sets of real-time indicators which could be...

We apply an econometric approach developed specifically to address the ‘curse of dimensionality' in Russian data and estimate a Bayesian vector autoregression model comprising 14 major domestic real, price and monetary macroeconomic indicators as well as external sector variables. We conduct...

This article presents three alternative models for decomposing loan developments into components associated with changes in loan demand and supply fundamentals. Two models are based on macro data (error correction model and structural vector autoregression with sign restrictions) and one is...