This paper evaluates the usefulness of business sentiment indicators for forecasting developments in the Chinese real economy.We use data on diffusion indices collected by the People's Bank of China for forecasting industrial production, retail sales and exports.Our bivariate vector...

This paper evaluates the usefulness of business sentiment indicators for forecasting developments in the Chinese real economy. We use data on diffusion indices collected by the People’s Bank of China for forecasting industrial production, retail sales and exports. Our bivariate vector...

Using a macroeconometric framework, this paper analyses relationships among money, barter and inflation in Russia during the transition period.Following the development of a theoretical framework that introduces barter in a standard small open economy macro model, we estimate our model using...

Most people seem to think that Russia's economy and fiscal situation are still crucially tied up with international oil prices and the exchange rate of the rouble, although this view has recently been challenged by some analysts.Empirical research on this topic is, however, scanty.In this paper,...

Using a macroeconometric framework, this paper analyses relationships among money, barter and inflation in Russia during the transition period. Following the development of a theoretical framework that introduces barter in a standard small open economy macro model, we estimate our model using...

Most people seem to think that Russia's economy and fiscal situation are still crucially tied up with international oil prices and the exchange rate of the rouble, although this view has recently been challenged by some analysts. Empirical research on this topic is, however, scanty. In this...

Using firm-level data for 18 major global economies, we find that the exchange rate affects corpo-rate investment through a financial channel: exchange rate depreciation dampens corporate invest-ment through firm leverage and FX debt. These findings are consistent with the predictions of a...

We examine the role of the exchange and interest rate channels during recent deflation episodes in Japan, Hong Kong and China.We estimate open-economy structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models for the three economies with different monetary regimes and varying degrees of openness.In both...

We examine money demand in the Chinese economy during a period characterized by significant disinflation and outright deflation, coupled with strong output growth.Our study establishes a stable money demand system for broad money M2.Inflation affects the adjustment of the system towards...

Estimating money demand functions for Russia following the 1998 crisis, we find a stable money demand relationship when augmented by a deterministic trend signifying falling velocity. As predicted by theory, higher income boosts demand for real rouble balances and the income elasticity of money...