We propose exploiting the term structure of relative interest rates to obtain estimates of changes in the timing of a currency crisis as perceived by market participants.Our indicator can be used to evaluate the relative probability of a crisis occurring in one week as compared to a crisis...

We use a dynamic heterogeneous panel model to estimate real equilibrium exchange rates for advanced transition countries.Our method is based on out-of-sample estimations from middle-income and high-income countries, and we use a pooled mean group estimator.We find that exchange rates have...

We apply BEER and PEER approaches to calculate real equilibrium exchange rates for five EU accession countries in central and east Europe.Bilateral nominal equilibrium exchange rates against the euro are obtained through algebraic transformation of the results. Panel cointegration techniques are...

Currency substitution, the use of foreign money to finance transactions between domestic residents, is a common feature of emerging market economies.Currency substitution reduces the stability of money demand functions in ways that can seriously undermine central bank credibility and its efforts...

We use a dynamic heterogeneous panel model to estimate real equilibrium exchange rates for advanced transition countries. Our method is based on out-of-sample estimations from middle-income and high-income countries, and we use a pooled mean group estimator. We find that exchange rates have...

We apply BEER and PEER approaches to calculate real equilibrium exchange rates for five EU accession countries in central and east Europe. Bilateral nominal equilibrium exchange rates against the euro are obtained through algebraic transformation of the results. Panel cointegration techniques...

The Balassa-Samuelson effect is usually seen as the prime explanation of the continuous real appreciation of central and east European (CEE) transition countries' currencies against their western counterparts. The response of a small country's real exchange rate to various shocks is derived in a...

Currency substitution, the use of foreign money to finance transactions between domestic residents, is a common feature of emerging market economies. Currency substitution re-duces the stability of money demand functions in ways that can seriously undermine cen-tral bank credibility and its...

This study considers the pervasive tax evasion of transition economies, with particular reference to Russia's tax system. Starting with a survey of theoretical literature on tax evasion and corruption, it argues that, although standard tax theory offers many insights, certain special features of...

The macro economic stabilisation in Azerbaijan has been successful. Following cessation of conflict with Armenia, and decline of GDP by 60 per cent from 1990 to 1995, the government in effect implemented a big-bang reform process in 1995.The inflation rate has now declined to the lowest rate of...