This paper develops a framework for assessing systemic risks and for predicting (out-of-sample) systemic events, i.e. periods of extreme financial instability with potential real costs. We test the ability of a wide range of stand alone. and composite indicators in predicting systemic events and...

A global renminbi needs to be backed by a large, deep and liquid renminbi bond market with a world-class Chinese government bond (CGB) market as its core. China's CGB market is the seventh largest in the world while sitting alongside a huge but non-tradable and captive central bank liability in...

This paper examines the international transmission of financial shocks which originate in, and are partially offset by, quantitative easing in a large financially-stressed country. Using a two-country model, we evaluate the adjustment in the non-stressed home country, following recurring...

The paper uses the Self-Organizing Map for mapping the state of financial stability and visualizing the sources of systemic risks on a two-dimensional plane as well as for predicting systemic financial crises. The Self-Organizing Financial Stability Map (SOFSM) enables a two-dimensional...

This paper develops a framework for assessing systemic risks and for predicting (out-of-sample) systemic events, i.e. periods of extreme financial instability with potential real costs. We test the ability of a wide range of “stand alone” and composite indicators in predicting systemic...

This paper provides evidence on the relationship between finance and high growth in China. Employing data for 27 Chinese provinces over the period 1995-2003, we assess the impact of banks and non-bank financial institutions on local economic growth. We argue that banks have had a larger impact...

​The financial crisis has shown that the liquidity creation function of banks is critical for the economy. In this paper, we empirically investigate whether bank liquidity creation fosters economic growth in a large emerging market, Russia. We follow the methodology of Berger and Bouwman...

Causality between the ratio of domestic private credit to GDP and growth in real GDP per capita is investigated in a country-by-country time-series framework for 24 OECD economies over the period 1980–2013. The proposed threefold methodology to test for causal linkages integrates (i)...

This paper estimates the effect of a foreign funding shock to banks in Brazil after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. Our robust results show that bank-specic shocks to Brazilian parent banks negatively affected lending by their individual branches and trigger real economic...

This paper focuses on the role of the banking sector in monetary policy transmission in an emerging economy with a rapidly developing financial system. Specifically, we exam whether the central bank's monetary policy stance affects banks' lending behaviour. Based on a comprehensive quarterly...