GDP forecasters face tough choices over which leading indicators to follow and which forecasting models to use. To help resolve these issues, we examine a range of monthly indicators to forecast quarterly GDP growth in a major emerging economy, Russia. Numerous useful indicators are identified...

This paper presents a MIDAS type mixed frequency VAR forecasting model. First, we propose a general and compact mixed frequency VAR framework using a stacked vector approach. Second, we integrate the mixed frequency VAR with a MIDAS type Almon lag polynomial scheme which is designed to reduce...

This paper presents a MIDAS type mixed frequency VAR forecasting model. First, we propose a general and compact mixed frequency VAR framework using a stacked vector approach. Second, we integrate the mixed frequency VAR with a MIDAS type Almon lag polynomial scheme which is designed to reduce...

Russia has witnessed a high number of bank failures over the last two decades. Using monthly data for 2002-2020, spanning four election cycles, we test the hypothesis that bank failures are less likely before presidential elections. We find that bank failures are less likely to occur in the...

This paper examines two regions of the Russian Federation, Novgorod and Pskov, to compare how differences in economic policy affect economic development.Despite common histories, geography and natural resources, Novgorod committed early on to policies that would attract foreign investments in...

The paper analyses fiscal competition for mobile capital between identical regions in a transition country.A framework similar to Keen-Marchand (1997) is used to analyse welfare effects of regional competition.It is shown that in very early transition when the share of the old sector is...

This empirical note uses publicly available Goskomstat data to investigate income growth and convergence across Russian regions. Using data for 1992-2001, we find strong sigma divergence simultaneously with beta convergence. he results indicate that per capita income in Russian regions may be...

This paper reports first results from a survey of 404 middle-sized and large manufacturing firms from 40 Russian regions in April-June 2003.We examine the extent of social service and infrastructure provision by the firms and the firms assessment of the quality of public infrastructure and the...

During the Soviet period industrial firms not only formed the backbone of the economy but also directly provided a wide range of benefits to their municipalities.Firms were in charge of supplying a great variety of social services, such as housing, medical care and day care.The need to divest at...

The Russian banking sector has experienced enormous growth rates during the last 6-7 years. The rapid growth of assets has, however, contributed to a decrease in the capital adequacy ratio, thus influencing the ability of banks to cope with risk. Using quarterly data spanning from 1999 to 2007...