We examine the role of demand composition in explaining the trade collapse and recovery during the ongoing covid-19 crisis. We apply an import-intensity-adjusted measure of demand to examine import trends in 40 advanced and emerging economies over the period 1Q95 to 4Q20. We focus on the crisis...

This paper studies the origins and consequences of the Russian mafia (vory-v-zakone). I web scraped a unique dataset that contains detailed biographies of more than 5,000 mafia leaders operating in 15 countries of the (former) Soviet Union at some point between 1916 and 2017. Using this data, I...

In our paper, we provide a review of the literature to identify the main transmission channels through which geopolitical risks (GPR) influence m a cro-financial st ab ility. We be gi n by analyzing the existing measures of geopolitical tensions and uncertainty, showing that GPR impacts economic...

Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the US, EU, and likeminded countries swiftly imposed an expanded set of primary and secondary export restrictions on Russia. This paper assesses the effectiveness of those measures and their ongoing refinement and modification over time...

This paper uses a survey among students at European universities to explore whether Russia's invasion of Ukraine has affected attitudes toward European integration. Some respondents completed the survey just before Russia's assault on February 24, 2022, and some did so just afterwards, thus...

Highly interconnected global supply chains make countries vulnerable to sup ply chain disruptions. This paper estimates the macroeconomic effects of global supply chain shocks for the euro area. Our empirical model combines busi ness cycle variables with data from international container trade....

In this paper, we examine how a trade conflict's impact on the real economy can be amplified by financial intermediaries. After the Norwegian Nobel Peace Prize Committee awarded the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize to Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo, China in practice banned imports of Norwegian salmon. The...

We examine Russian imports since a coalition of countries imposed sanctions on exports to Russia. As Russia no longer publishes detailed statistics on foreign trade, we rely on export data from its largest trading partners (mirror statistics). We are particularly interested in trade diversion,...

Over the past twenty years, China has become the world's largest trading nation and a significant trading partner for most countries. Despite these important links, concerns regarding China's commercial and diplomatic goals persist due to its unique state-centric economic structure. This paper...

We study how terminated correspondent banking relationships affect international trade. Drawing on firm-level export data from emerging Europe, we show that when local banks lose access to correspondent services, their corporate clients experience significant export declines. This trade...