The recent and rapidly growing interest in biofuel as a green energy source has raised concerns about its impact on the prices, returns and volatility of related agricultural commodities. Analyzing the spillover effects on agricultural commodities and biofuel helps commodity suppliers hedge...

We compute joint sovereign default probabilities as coincident systemic risk indicators. Instead of commonly used CDS spreads, we use government bond yield data which provide a longer data history. We show that for the more recent sample period 2008--2015, joint default probabilities based on...

The paper considers various extended asymmetric multivariate conditional volatility models, and derives appropriate regularity conditions and associated asymptotic theory. This enables checking of internal consistency and allows valid statistical inferences to be drawn based on empirical...

Random subspace methods are a novel approach to obtain accurate forecasts in high-dimensional regression settings. We provide a theoretical justification of the use of random subspace methods and show their usefulness when forecasting monthly macroeconomic variables. We focus on two approaches....

We introduce a new fractionally integrated model for covariance matrix dynamics based on the long-memory behavior of daily realized covariance matrix kernels and daily return observations. We account for fat tails in both types of data by appropriate distributional assumptions. The covariance...

This article presents a bifurcation theory of smooth stochastic dynamical systems that are governed by everywhere positive transition densities. The local dependence structure of the unique strictly stationary evolution of such a system can be expressed by the ratio of joint and marginal...

In this paper we present a new three-step approach to the estimation of Generalized Orthogonal GARCH (GO-GARCH) models, as proposed by van der Weide (2002). The approach only requires (non-linear) least-squares methods in combination with univariate GARCH estimation, and as such is...

In this paper I examine various extensions of the Nelson and Siegel (1987) model with the purpose of fitting and forecasting the term structure of interest rates. As expected, I find that using more flexible models leads to a better in-sample fit of the term structure. However, I show that the...

We forecast the term structure of U.S. Treasury zero-coupon bond yields by analyzing a range of models that have been used in the literature. We assess the relevance of parameter uncertainty by examining the added value of using Bayesian inference compared to frequentist estimation techniques,...