In this paper we present a methodology designed to estimate the future path of the interest payments of central government. The basic idea is to represent in a compact way the joint dynamics of debt liabilities and interest payments as a function of four elements: the initial outstanding amounts...

The theoretical literature on term structure models emphasises the importance of the expected absorption of duration risk during the residual life of term bonds in order to understand the yield curve effect of central banks’ government bond purchases. Motivated by this, we develop a...

We investigate the link between securitization and asset prices and show that increases in the growth rate of the volume of ABS issuance lead to a sizable decline in bond and equity premia. Furthermore, we show that in a model where banks select their portfolio of assets and create synthetic...

We analyse how the European Central Bank's purchases of corporate bonds under its Corporate Sector Purchase Programme (CSPP) affected the financing of Spanish nonfinancial firms. Our results show that the announcement of the CSPP in March 2016 significantly raised firms' propensity to issue...

This paper analyzes housing market boom-bust cycles driven by changes in households’ expectations. We explore the role of expectations not only on productivity but on several other shocks that originate in the housing market, the credit market and the conduct of monetary policy. We find that,...

We document that the U.S. economy has been characterized by an increasingly negative business cycle asymmetry over the last three decades. This finding can be explained by the concurrent increase in the financial leverage of households and firms. To support this view, we devise and estimate a...

What are the effects of a housing bubble on the rest of the economy? We show that if firms and banks face collateral constraints, a housing bubble initially raises credit demand by housing firms while leaving credit supply unaffected. It therefore crowds out credit to non-housing firms. If time...

This paper describes a paradox of global thrift. Consider a world in which interest rates are low and monetary policy is constrained by the zero lower bound. Now imagine that governments implement prudential financial and fiscal policies to stabilize the economy. We show that these policies,...

To identify credit availability we analyze the extensive and intensive margins of lending with loan applications and all loans granted in Spain. We find that during the period analyzed both worse economic and tighter monetary conditions reduce loan granting, especially to firms or from banks...

We measure the time-varying strength of macro-financial linkages within and across the US and euro area economies by employing a large set of information for each region. In doing so, we rely on factor models with drifting parameters where real and financial cycles are extracted, and shocks are...