Economic theory suggests including domestic trade flows when estimating structural gravity models. The inclusion of domestic trade flows helps to identify parameters that cannot be estimated with international trade flows alone. The complication is that domestic trade flows can be measured...

We estimate the impact of MERCOSUR on trade flows and on gains from trade for its member countries using a standard modern general equilibrium quantitative structural gravity model. We find a highly heterogeneous impact on bilateral trade flows and gains from trade. We estimate that gains from...

We study how estimators used to impute consumption in survey data are inconsistent due to measurement error in consumption. Previous research suggests instrumenting consumption to overcome this problem. We show that, if additional regressors are present, then instrumenting consumption may still...

Between the 1940s and 1970s, Spain used a variety of economic policies that hindered international trade. Because the mix of tariffs, quotas, administrative barriers, and exchange rate regimes varied greatly over time, the quantification of the effect of the various trade policies on...

Using an empirical gravity model, I estimate the contribution of changes in relative labor supply to bilateral migration in the 2000s and apply the resulting estimates to project future bilateral flows based on population forecasts by the United Nations. I extend the work of Hanson and McIntosh...

By how much do employed households reduce their consumption when the aggregate unemployment rate rises? In Spain during the Great Recession a 1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate was related to a strong drop in household consumption of more than 0.7% per equivalent adult. This...

Emerging economies with inflation targets (IT) face a dilemma between fulfilling the theoretical conditions of strict IT, which imply a fully flexible exchange rate, or applying a flexible IT, which entails a de facto managed floating exchange rate with FX interventions to moderate exchange rate...

This paper examines the characteristics and determinants of the deviations between the initial and final figures of the Spanish public budget from 1985 to 2006. Our goal is to evaluate the extent to which initial budgeted figures adhered ex-post to actual fiscal figures, by trying to unveil...

This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model in which the public and the private sector interact in the labor market. Previous studies that analyze the labor market effects of public sector employment and wages have mostly assumed exogenous rules for public wage and public employment....

We extend previous work that combines the Value at Risk approach with estimation of the correlation pattern of the macroeconomic determinants of public debt dynamics by means of Vector Auto Regressions (VARs). These estimated models are used to compute the probability that the public debt ratio...