We develop a new monthly indicator of supply bottlenecks using newspaper articles. The supply bottlenecks index (SBI) provides a consistent narrative of supply issues related to wars, natural disasters, strikes and, most recently, the COVID-19 pandemic. Innovations in the SBI have important...

This paper investigates the reactions of US financial markets to press news from January 2019 to 1 May 2020. To this end, we deduce the content and sentiment of the news by developing apposite indices from the headlines and snippets of The New York Times, using unsupervised machine learning...

We study and measure uncertainty in the minutes of the meetings of the board of governors of the Central Bank of Mexico and relate it to monetary policy variables. In particular, we construct two uncertainty indices for the Spanish version of the minutes using unsupervised machine learning...

This paper investigates the relationship between the views expressed in the minutes of the meetings of the Central Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) and the real economy. It applies various computational linguistic machine learning algorithms to construct measures of the...

This paper presents US and euro area estimates for a fully heterogeneous model, in which there is a continuum of firms setting prices with a constant probability of adjustment, which may differ from firm to firm. The estimated model accurately matches the empirical distribution function of...

we analyse the impact of fiscal policy shocks in the euro area as a whole, using a newly available quarterly dataset of fiscal variables for the period 1981-2007. to allow for comparability with previous results on euro area countries and the us, we use a standard structural var framework, and...

The Phillips curve has flattened out over the last decades. We develop a model that rationalizes this phenomenon as a result of the observed increase in polarization in many industries, a process along which a few top firms gain an increasing share of their industry market. In the model, firms...

In this paper we study fiscal policy effects and fiscal space for countries in a monetary union with different levels of public debt. We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of a two-country monetary union, calibrated to match the characteristics of Spain and Germany, in...

The issue of the size of fiscal spillovers in the euro area has gained prominence recently, given proposals to coordinate fiscal policies that aim at achieving an appropriate “aggregate fiscal stance”, consistent with economic and monetary policy conditions. Given the heterogeneous fiscal...

We assess the effects of the ECB's recent unconventional monetary policy measures by estimating a global VAR that exploits panel variation among all euro area economies and explicitly takes into account cross-country interdependencies. Unconventional monetary policy measures have beneficial...