We build a semi-structural New Keynesian model with financial frictions to study the drivers of macroeconomic tail risk (‘GDP-at-Risk’). We analyse the empirically observed fat left tail of the GDP distribution by modelling three key non-linearities emphasised in the literature: 1) an...

We study the implications of multi-period mortgage loans for monetary policy, considering several realistic modifications — fixed interest rate contracts, lower bound constraint on newly granted loans, and possibility for the collateral constraint to become slack — to an otherwise standard...

We develop early warning models for financial crisis prediction using machine learning techniques on macrofinancial data for 17 countries over 1870–2016. Machine learning models mostly outperform logistic regression in out-of-sample predictions and forecasting. We identify economic drivers of...

We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework that can account for important macroeconomic and financial moments, given Epstein-Zin preferences, heterogeneous banking and third-order approximation methods that yield a time-varying term premium that feeds back to the real economy....