This paper explores the influence of some key institutional features of the labour market on aggregate fluctuations. It uses a dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium model characterised by search and matching frictions in the labour market and nominal rigidities in the goods market. It finds...

We discuss combining sign restrictions with information in external instruments (proxy variables) to identify structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models. In one setting, we assume the availability of valid external instruments. Sign restrictions may then be used to identify further...

We study the interaction between monetary policy and labour supply decisions at the household level. We uncover evidence of heterogeneous responses and a strong income effect on labour supply in the left tail of the income distribution, following a monetary policy shock in the US and the UK....

This paper studies the effects of macroeconomic shocks on business investment in the United Kingdom by filtering a large UK firm-level based dataset of financial accounts into macro-level proxy indicators, and then using these indicators in a Bayesian vector autoregression framework to analyse...

This paper provides novel empirical evidence showing that foreign financial developments are a powerful predictor of domestic banking crises. Using a new data set for 38 advanced and emerging economies over 1970–2011, we show that credit growth in the rest of the world has a large positive...

We study macroeconomic dynamics and optimal monetary policy in an economy with cyclical labor flows across two distinct regions sharing trade links and a common monetary framework. In our New Keynesian DSGE model with search and matching frictions, migration flows are driven by fluctuations in...

Using a structural vector autoregression, we document that a contractionary monetary policy shock triggers a decline in durable and non-durable outputs as well as a contraction in bank equity and a rise in the excess bond premium. The latter points to an important transmission channel of...

When the economy is in a liquidity trap and households have a precautionary motive to save against unemployment risk, adverse demand shocks cause severe deflationary spirals and output contractions. In this context, we study the implications of optimal monetary policy, which consists of keeping...

This paper estimates the effects of monetary policy on the UK economy based on a new, extensive real-time forecast data set. Employing the Romer–Romer identification approach we first construct a new measure of monetary policy innovations for the UK economy. We find that a 1 percentage point...

We combine industry‑level data on output and prices with monetary policy shock estimates for 105 countries to analyse how the effects of monetary policy vary with industry characteristics. Next to being interesting in their own right, our findings are informative on the importance of various...