This paper proposes an empirical model which can be used to estimate the impact of changes in the volatility of shocks to US real activity on the UK economy. The proposed empirical model is a structural VAR where the volatility of structural shocks is time varying and is allowed to affect the...

Evidence from a large and growing empirical literature strongly suggests that there have been changes in inflation and output dynamics in the United Kingdom. This is largely based on a class of econometric models that allow for time-variation in coefficients and volatilities of shocks. While...

This paper examines the macroeconomic impact of the first round of quantitative easing (QE) by the Bank of England which started in March 2009. Although Bank Rate, the UK policy rate, was reduced to ½%, effectively its lower bound, the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee felt that additional...

This paper uses a ‘trendy' approach to understand UK inflation dynamics. It focuses on the time series to isolate a low-frequency and slow-moving component of inflation (the trend) from deviations around this trend. We find that this slow-moving trend explains a substantial share of UK...

Recent studies illustrate that under some conditions dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models can be expressed as structural vector autoregressive models of infinite order. Based on this mapping and the theoretical results about vector autoregressive models of infinite order this paper...

This paper uses kernel methods to estimate a seven variable time-varying (TV) vector autoregressive (VAR) model on the US data set constructed by Smets and Wouters. We use an indirect inference method to map from this TV VAR to time variation in implied Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium...

This paper uses a vector autoregression model estimated with Bayesian methods to identify the effect of productivity news shocks on labour market variables by imposing that they are orthogonal to current technology but they explain future observed technology. In the aftermath of a positive news...

We identify a 'risk news' shock in a vector autoregression (VAR), modifying Barsky and Sims's procedure, while incorporating sign restrictions to simultaneously identify monetary policy, technology and demand shocks. The VAR-identifed risk news shock is estimated to account for around 2%-12% of...

The identification of reduced-form VAR model had been the subject of numerous debates in the literature. Different sets of identifying assumptions can lead to very different conclusions in the policy debate. This paper proposes a theoretically consistent identification strategy using...

In this paper we assess the macroeconomic effects of two of the flagship unconventional monetary policies used by the Bank of England during the later stages of the global economic crisis: additional quantitative easing (QE) and the introduction of the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS). We argue...