We employ a parsimonious nonlinear Interacted-VAR to examine whether the real effects of uncertainty shocks are greater when the economy is at the Zero Lower Bound. We find the contractionary effects of uncertainty shocks to be statistically larger when the ZLB is binding, with differences that...

We investigate the role played by systematic monetary policy in tackling the real effects of uncertainty shocks in U.S. recessions and expansions. We model key indicators of the business cycle with a nonlinear VAR that allows for different dynamics in busts and booms. Uncertainty shocks are...

This paper uses a nonlinear vector autoregression and a non-recursive identiÖcation strategy to show that an equal-sized uncertainty shock generates a larger contraction in real activity when growth is low (as in recessions) than when growth is high (as in expansions). An estimated New...

We estimate a three-variate VAR using proxies of global financial uncertainty, the global financial cycle, and world industrial production to simulate the effects of the jump in financial uncertainty observed in correspondence of the Covid-19 outbreak. We predict the cumulative loss in world...

How large are government spending and tax multipliers? The fiscal proxy-SVAR literature provides heterogenous estimates, depending on which proxies - fiscal or non-fiscal - are used to identify fiscal shocks. We reconcile the existing estimates via a flexible vector autoregressive model that...

We estimate a novel measure of global Önancial uncertainty (GFU) with a dynamic factor framework that jointly models global, regional, and country-speciÖc factors. We quantify the impact of GFU shocks on global output with a VAR analysis that achieves set-identiÖcation via a combination of...

The paper re-examines whether the Federal Reserve's monetary policy was a source of instability during the Great Inflation by estimating a sticky-price model with positive trend inflation, commodity price shocks and sluggish real wages. Our estimation provides empirical evidence for substantial...

We propose a new non-recursive identification scheme for uncertainty shocks, which exploits breaks in the unconditional volatility of macroeconomic variables. Such identification approach allows us to simultaneously address two major questions in the empirical literature on uncertainty: (i) Does...

This paper estimates regime-switching monetary policy rules featuring trend inflation using post-WWII US data. We find evidence in favour of regime shifts and time-variation of the inflation target. We also find a drop in the inflation gap persistence when entering the Great Moderation sample....

We estimate a new-Keynesian DSGE model with the cost channel to assess its ability to replicate the price puzzle ie the inflationary impact of a monetary policy shock typically arising in VAR analysis. In order to correctly identify the monetary policy shock, we distinguish between a standard...