Predictability is time and frequency dependent. We propose a new forecasting method - forecast combination in the frequency domain - that takes this fact into account. With this method we forecast the equity premium and real GDP growth rate. Combining forecasts in the frequency domain produces...

Motivated by the U.S. events of the 2000s, we address whether a too low for too long interest rate policy may generate a boom-bust cycle. We simulate anticipated and unanticipated monetary policies in state-of-the-art DSGE models and in a model with bond financing via a shadow banking system, in...

Macroeconomic models with sticky information include an infinite number of lagged expectations. Several authors have developed specialized solutions algorithms to solve these models under rational expectations. We demonstrate that it is also possible to implement this class of models in Dynare -...

In this paper, I introduce lumpy micro-level capital adjustment into a sticky information general equilibrium model. Lumpy adjustment arises because of inattentiveness in capital investment decisions instead of the more common assumption of non-convex adjustment costs. The model features...

Investment in physical capital at the micro level is infrequent and large, or lumpy. The most common explanation for this is that firms face non-convex physical adjustment costs. The model developed in this paper shows that information costs make investment lumpy at the micro level, even in the...

We assess the performance of optimal Taylor-type interest rate rules, with and without reaction to financial variables, in stabilizing an economy following financial shocks. The analysis is conducted in a DSGE model with loan and bond markets, each featuring financial frictions. This allows for...

Despite an increase in research – motivated by the global financial crisis of 2007-08 – empirical studies on the financial cycle are rare compared to those on the business cycle. This paper adds some new evidence to this scarce literature by using a different empirical methodology –...

This paper presents Aino 2.0 – the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model currently used at the Bank of Finland for forecasting and policy analysis. The paper provides a detailed theoretical description of the model, its estimation and how it can be used to interpret the evolution...

We generalize the Ferreira and Santa-Clara (2011) sum-of-the-parts method for forecasting stock market returns. Rather than summing the parts of stock returns, we suggest summing some of the frequency-decomposed parts. The proposed method signi cantly improves upon the original sum-of-the-parts...

We revisit the empirical performance of the Q theory of investment, explicitly taking into account the frequency dependence of investment, Tobin's Q, and cash flow. The time series are decomposed into orthogonal components of different frequencies using wavelet multiresolution analysis. We find...