The trend deviation of the Credit-to-GDP ratio ("Basel gap") is a widely used early warning indicator of banking crises. It is calculated with the one-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter using an extremely large value of the smoothing parameter λ. We recalibrate the smoothing parameter with panel...

We investigate the relationship between the daily average interbank overnight borrowing rate (AOR) and the credit default swap price (CDS) of 60 banks using the Eurosystem's proprietary data from mid-2008 to mid-2013. We find that the AOR which is observable only by the competent Eurosystem...

According to EU legislation, the national authorities should use the principle of 'guided discretion' in setting the countercyclical capital buffer (CCB), which increases banks' resilience against systemic risk associated with periods of excessive credit growth. This means that the decision...

We investigate how European banks' overnight borrowing costs depend on bank size. We use the Eurosystem's proprietary interbank daily loan data on euro-denominated transactions from 2008-2014. We find that large banks have had a clear borrowing cost advantage over small banks and that this...

Unit root methods have long been used in detection of financial bubbles in asset prices. The basic idea is that fundamental changes in the autocorrelation structure of relevant time series imply the presence of a rational price bubble. We provide cross-country evidence for performance of...

We examine bank capital shocks using a recent new approach based on non-normal errors in vector autoregressive models. Using a sample of 14 European economies over January 2004 through March 2018 we identify two distinct classes of bank capital shocks, capital tightening shocks, and bank...

We consider predicting systemic financial crises one to five years ahead using recurrent neural networks. The prediction performance is evaluated with the Jorda-Schularick-Taylor dataset, which includes the crisis dates and relevant macroeconomic series of 17 countries over the period 1870-2016....

Using the Eurosystem's proprietary interbank loan data from more than one thousand banks, practically all major banks in Europe for 2008-2016, we show that larger European banks have had a lower cost of overnight borrowing than smaller banks. The size premium remains significant after...

This paper presents econometric analyses on the determination of bank deposit and lending rates using longitudinal Finnish data. Interest rate pass-through is very strong, possibly complete, in the case of lending rates; in the case of deposit rates the pass-through is far from complete, even in...

This paper presents a model depicting cross-border payment systems as a mixed oligopoly.A private net settlement system that maximises profit competes with the central banks' gross settlement system that maximises welfare.It may be optimal for the central bank system to encourage increased use...