We depart from the common reaction function-based approach used to infer central bank preferences. Instead, we extract the tone from the textual information in the central bank communication using both a lexicon-based approach and a language model. We combine the tone with real-time information...

Empirical evidence suggests that local jurisdictions are internally more heterogeneous than standard sorting models predict. We develop a dynamic multiregion model, with fluctuating regional house prices, where an owner-occupying household's location choice depends on its current wealth and its...

We develop a dynamic multi-region model, with fluctuating regional house prices, where an owner-occupied household´s location choice depends on its current wealth and its current type and involves both consumption and investment considerations. The relative strength of the consumption motive...

This article empirically studies the linkages between financial variable downturns and economic recessions. We present evidence that real asset prices tend to lead real cycles, while loan-to-GDP and loan-to-deposit ratios lag them. Using a probit analysis, we document that downturns in real...

We investigate the causes of the Finnish Great Depression, 1990-1993. We find that the collapse of the overheated financial and banking sectors starting in 1989 was the trigger of the economic crisis. Foreign shocks, which include the collapse of trade with USSR in 1991, can account for at most...

​We build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, where the balance sheets of both banks and non-financial firms play a role in macro-financial linkages. We show that in equilibrium bank capital tends to be scarce, compared with firm capital. We study public funding of banks and firms...

We estimate the ECB's monetary policy reaction function by using real time Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projection data, which are presented to the ECB's Governing Council when it assesses the monetary policy stance in the euro area. Alternative specifications of the reaction function...

We study macroeconomic consequences of a major trade disruption using the example of the Finnish-Soviet trade collapse in 1991. This is a rare case of a well-identified large trade shock in a developed economy. We find that the shock had a significant effect on Finnish output. While the direct...

We study public funding of banks and non-financial firms in a time of crisis. We find that bank capitalization is more effective in stabilizing the economy than direct funding to firms, but it also creates larger distortions. We show that the optimal, social-welfare-maximizing, structure of a...

We measure the tone (sentiment) of the ECB's Governing Council regarding economic outlook at the time of each monetary policy meeting and use this information together with the Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projections to directly estimate the Governing Council's loss function. Our results...