This paper analyzes Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) calculation methods in terms of bias and dispersion against benchmarks computed from a fat-tailed parametric distribution. The daily log returns of the Nikkei-225 stock index are modeled by a truncated stable distribution. The...

The currency crisis in the 1997 diversified views on Asian economies. In one view, the ever-expanding image of Asian economies faded away, resulting in a view that Asia could never regain the power to achieve sustainable strong economic growth. In another view, Asia is still believed to continue...

This paper examines the effects of demographic changes in Japan upon the social security system, labor market, household savings rate, and economic growth. The results are, firstly, to confirm, in the face of these demographic changes, (1) the increasing difficulty of maintaining the current...

This paper proposes and estimates an extended shadow-rate term structure model, and uses it to extract inflation risk premia from nominal and real term structures. Our model incorporates the shadow rate and thereby explicitly takes account of the zero lower bound constraint of nominal interest...

The history of financial crises, including the recent global crisis, shows that post-financial-crisis recoveries tend to be slower than usual recoveries. Against this background lie various factors, one of which is a slowdown in productivity induced by a post-crisis deterioration in firms'...

This paper examines the major determinant of the cross-border credit flows from global banks toward 70 vis-a-vis countries in seven regions of the world. Employing a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model, we decompose the volatilities of banking flows into the contribution of the global-common...

In this paper, we investigate the impact of reforms in the banking sector and shifts of the monetary policy focus from quantitative controls to interest-rate controls on bank-lending and corporate-borrowing activities by applying a panel-data analysis of financial data of listed Chinese...

Because a borrower often faces switching costs in dealing with individual banks, the financial health of any given bank might affect the borrower's cost of funds. These costs would be particularly large for firms that have close relationships with relatively few banks. The purpose of this paper...

This study, based on a search model, attempts to draw out the implications for discussions about reference rates that originated from the recent Libor manipulation scandal, with particular focus on whether the calculation of reference rates should be based solely on actual transaction data and...

We define downward price rigidity as the state in which the speed at which prices fall is slower than that in which they rise. Based on this definition, we examine the downward price rigidity of each item that constitutes the core CPI of Japan. That is, according to the results of fractional...