This paper examines survey expectations of the yen/dollar exchange rate. We fit simple mechanisms on the survey expectations and test their rationality. We present the puzzling fact that in the 1990's the short-horizon expectations have lost their destabilizing property observed in the late...

Recent empirical literature suggests that the degree of nominal rigidities varies over monetary policy regimes. This implies that monetary policy analysis with exogenously given nominal rigidities is subject to the Lucas critique. In a Calvo-style sticky price model, we endogenize nominal...

This paper analyzes the revision to Japan's labor productivity, measured using Japan's System of National Accounts (SNA) data. We draw three main findings from our analysis. First, SNA data has been substantially revised in and after the second comprehensive revisions, as well as at the earlier...

Using the FRB/Global model on Japanese monetary policy in the early 1990s, Ahearne et al. (2002) argued that deflation could have been avoided in Japan if the BOJ had lowered short-term interest rates by a further 250 basis points at any time between 1991 and early-1995 as "insurance against...

This paper proposes a new approach for nowcasting as yet unavailable GDP growth by estimating monthly GDP growth with a large dataset. The model consists of two parts: (i) a few indicators that explain a large part of the variation in GDP growth, and (ii) principal components, which are...

This paper provides a brief explanation and a detailed documentation of the current version of the Quarterly Japanese Economic Model (Q-JEM), which has been developed and constantly updated since the mid-2000s at Research and Statistics Department, Bank of Japan. Q-JEM is a large-scale...

In this paper, we set out the JEM (Japanese Economic Model), a large macroeconomic model of the Japanese Economy. Although the JEM is a theoretical model designed with a view to overcoming the Lucas (1976) critique of traditional large macroeconomic models, it can also be used for both...

We consider a competitive bank loan market model where the marginal costs of managing and monitoring loans are assumed to increase as borrowers' net worth decreases. We show that the responsiveness of equilibrium bank loan rates to changes in interbank money market rates become weaker as...

This paper examines the relationship between monetary policy uncertainty and the term structure of interest rates. Extending the Ellingsen and Soderstrom (2001) model, we demonstrate that long-term interest rates are positively related to monetary policy uncertainty, with the magnitude...

This paper aims primarily to propose the framework for estimating the optimal levels of capital at banks with broad perspectives, elaborating factors such as liquidity and macroeconomic conditions. First, we attempt to reorganize the variety of policy proposals for enhancing financial sector...