Showing 1 - 10 of 10
In order to provide short run forecasts of headline and core HICP inflation for France, we assess the forecasting performance of a large set of economic indicators, individually and jointly, as well as using dynamic factor models. We run out-of-sample forecasts implementing the Stock and Watson...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013134962
In order to provide medium run forecasts of headline and core HICP inflation for the euro area, we assess the usefulness of dynamic factor models. We use Stock and Watson's (1999) out-of-sample methodology for models estimated over the 1988:1-2002:3 period, with balanced and unbalanced panels....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013134965
The paper implements a consistent empirical strategy in order to investigate the behaviour of the markup over the cycle and its contribution to inflation movements.We model the price series as I(2) components and use polynomial cointegration in order to recover a long-run price schedule. We do...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135043
Using a large sample of accounting data for non financial companies in France on the period 1990-2004, the paper studies the interactions between macroeconomic shocks and companies financial fragility. We consider links in both directions, namely whether .rms. bankruptcies are affected by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013115694
In this paper we give a precise definition of long-run causality in a multivariate non-stationary, possibly cointegrated, framework. A variable is said to be causal for another in the long run if knowledge of the past of the former improves long-run predictions of the latter. In a VAR framework,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013131871
In order to assess the effect of fiscal rules in Stage Three of EMU for France and Germany, Bayoumi and Eichengreen's (1992) structural VAR analysis is extended by including the general government financial surplus and conditioning by external variables. This allows a distinction between fiscal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014187521
The objective of the paper is to investigate to what extent business cycles co-move in Germany, France and Italy. We use a large-scale database of non-stationary series for the euro area in order to assess the effect of common versus idiosyncratic shocks, as well as transitory versus permanent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136631
The paper contributes to the literature on the convergence of financial systems in the euro area by estimating household credit demand in individual countries. Using the ARDL framework advocated notably by Pesaran et al. (1999), the paper provides evidence on the convergence of long run credit...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136672
The article contributes to the literature on financial fragility, studying how macro-economic shocks affect supply and demand in the corporate debt market. We take into account the effect of the competitive environment, as well as the risk level, measured by companies' default rate. The model is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013137974
In order to assess transmission mechanisms between global and domestic house prices, and possibly contagion effects, we use a large database of macroeconomic variables for OECD countries. We extract common factors to summarize the comovements of the variables and include them in stationary FAVAR...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013142706