In order to provide short run forecasts of headline and core HICP inflation for France, we assess the forecasting performance of a large set of economic indicators, individually and jointly, as well as using dynamic factor models. We run out-of-sample forecasts implementing the Stock and Watson...

In order to provide medium run forecasts of headline and core HICP inflation for the euro area, we assess the usefulness of dynamic factor models. We use Stock and Watson's (1999) out-of-sample methodology for models estimated over the 1988:1-2002:3 period, with balanced and unbalanced panels....

The paper implements a consistent empirical strategy in order to investigate the behaviour of the markup over the cycle and its contribution to inflation movements.We model the price series as I(2) components and use polynomial cointegration in order to recover a long-run price schedule. We do...

Using a large sample of accounting data for non financial companies in France on the period 1990-2004, the paper studies the interactions between macroeconomic shocks and companies financial fragility. We consider links in both directions, namely whether .rms. bankruptcies are affected by...

This paper reviews the different channels of transmission of prudential policy highlighted in the literature and provides a quantitative assessment of the impact of Basel III reforms using “off-the-shelf” DSGE models. It shows that the effects of regulation are positive on GDP whenever the...

The paper investigates, from the welfare and growth point of view, the determination of the optimal capacity of the banking system. For that purpose, we consider an overlapping generation model with endogenous growth. There is horizontal differentiation and imperfect competition in the banking...

In order to assess the effect of fiscal rules in Stage Three of EMU for France and Germany, Bayoumi and Eichengreen's (1992) structural VAR analysis is extended by including the general government financial surplus and conditioning by external variables. This allows a distinction between fiscal...

The paper assesses the overall consistency and impact on both the financial sector and the real economy, of the numerous banking regulations that have been introduced in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis. For this purpose, we develop, within a multi-period asset framework, a large...

Using panel data covering 126 low- and middle-income countries over 1960-2017, we find that sustained positive temperature deviations from their historical norms have a non-linear negative effect on economic growth and growth per capita. A sustained 1°C temperature increase lowers real GDP per...

MASCOTTE is the new version of the Banque de France's macro-econometric forecasting model. Following the last rebasing of National Accounts (currently at 1995 price), the previous version of the model was simplified, re-specified and re-estimated. The model is essentially used for making...