In addition to containing stable information to explain inflation, state-local expenditures have also a larger share of the forecast error variance of US inflation than the Federal funds rate. Non-defense federal expenditures are useful in predicting real output variations and, starting from the...

We apply graphical modelling theory to identify fiscal policy shocks in SVAR models of the US economy. Unlike other econometric approaches of which achieve identification by relying on potentially contentious a priori assumptions of graphical modelling is a data based tool. Our results are in...

In this paper we explore the information content of a large set of fiscal indicators for US real output growth and inflation. We provide evidence that fluctuations in certain fiscal variables contain valuable information to predict fluctuations in output and prices. The distinction between...

In complete markets economies (Sandroni [15]), or in economies with Pareto optimal outcomes (Blume and Easley [9]), the market selection hypothesis holds, as long as traders have identical discount factors. Traders who survive must have beliefs that merge with the truth. We show that in...

We consider customer joining behaviour for a system that consists of a FCFS queue with Bernoulli feedback. A consequence of the feedback characteristic is that the sojourn time of a customer already in the system depends on the joining decisions taken by future arrivals to the system. By...

This paper estimates the money demand function for Jamaica using a Structural co-integrating VAR. This approach provides estimates of the long run structural relations and also reveals the complex short run feedbacks of monetary policy on key macro variables. In recent years Jamaican governments...

We use a supply-demand framework to model the hourly day-ahead spot price of electricity based on publicly available information. With the model we can forecast the level and the probability of a spike in the spot price de¯ned as the spot price being above a certain threshold. Several European...

Multi-unit common value uniform price auctions with demand function bids are in widespread use. I analyze this auction when there is an informed bidder and other uninformed bidders. In such auctions it is easy to construct equilibria in which uninformed bidders earn a positive payoff by free...

We revisit the problem of calculating the exact distribution of optimal investments in a mean variance world under multivariate normality. The context we consider is where problems in optimisation are addressed through the use of Monte-Carlo simulation. Our findings give clear insight as to when...