This paper argues that individuals may rationally weight price increases for food and energy products differently from their expenditure shares when forming expectations about price inflation. We develop a simple dynamic model of the economy with gradual price adjustment in the "core" (non-food,...

This paper considers whether the Phillips curve can explain the recent behavior of inflation in the United States. Standard formulations of the model predict that the ongoing large shortfall in economic activity relative to full employment should have led to deflation over the past several...

The energy shocks of the 1970's had significant effects on the global economy. Were they engineered by an effective cartel of OPEC members acting to share the market by controlling output and influencing market prices? If OPEC was an effective cartel sharing the market among its members, there...

This paper presents a model in which some goods trade in "customer markets." In these markets, advertising plays a critical role in facilitating long-lived relationships. We estimate both policy and non-policy parameters of the model (which includes New-Keynesian frictions) on U.S. data,...

This paper provides estimators of discrete choice models, including binary, ordered, and multinomial response (choice) models. The estimators closely resemble ordinary and two stage least squares. The distribution of the model's latent variable error is unknown and may be related to the...

This paper considers identification and estimation of the marginal effect of a mismeasured binary regressor in a nonparametric regression, or the conditional average effect of a binary treatment or policy on some outcome where treatment may be misclassified. Misclassification probabilities and...

This paper estimates a dynamic model of durable and non-durable consumption choice and default behavior in an economy where risky borrowing is allowed and bankruptcy protection is regulated by law. I exploit the substantial difference in the generosity of bankruptcy exemptions across the U.S....

This paper studies the identification of nonseparable models with continuous, endogenous regressors, also called treatments, using repeated cross sections. We show that several treatment effect parameters are identified under two assumptions on the effect of time, namely a weak stationarity...

This paper is concerned with developing a semiparametric panel model to explain the trend in UK temperatures and other weather outcomes over the last century. We work with the monthly averaged maximum and minimum temperatures observed at the twenty six Meteorological Office stations. The data is...

Consider an observed binary regressor D and an unobserved binary variable D*, both of which affect some other variable Y. This paper considers nonparametric identification and estimation of the effect of D on Y, conditioning on D*=0. For example, suppose Y is a person's wage, the unobserved D*...