In this paper we develop and estimate a new-Keynesian model of inflation and use it to investigate the hypothesis that prices in the UK are re-set more frequently during periods of high inflation. In the model, firms are assumed to condition their expectations on an optimally-selected but...

We show that the New-Keynesian (NK) model of inflation can be interpreted as a forward-looking cointegrated model. This allows us to model firms' expectations about marginal costs in a simple VAR framework and develop relatively simple formal tests of the model which bypass the econometric...

This paper provides an alternative to the theory of rational expectations (RE). Its central idea is that the information set on which agents will choose to condition their expectations will not, in general, include all the available information. Our alternative has many of the attractive...

We use microeconomic data to explore the effects of a changing age-structure on the UK's aggregate personal savings rate. Our findings suggest that changes to the population's age structure age have had detectable, sustained, but, relative to the yearly changes observed in the savings rate over...

This paper modifies the menu-cost model that Ball and Mankiw (1995) put forward to explain the correlation between the first- and higher-moments of the distribution of US price changes by allowing for non-zero trend inflation. Simulations suggest that even if trend inflation is only mildly...

The prevalence of prices ending in 99 cents is explained as the result of rational consumers rounding prices up. Monopolists are shown to be harmed by this practice whereas consumers may gain. The model is compared with two other models: Basu's (1997) model and one which assumes consumers round...

King (1997) develops a framework for assessing four monetary regimes: an optimal state-contingent rule; a non-contingent rule; pure discretion; and a Rogoffian conservative central banker. Using this framework we show (a) that King is wrong to claim that it implies that an optimally-conservative...

Techniques for determining the number of stochastic trends generating a set of non-stationary panel data are applied to budget shares for a number of commodity groups from the Family Expenditure Survey (FES) for the UK for the years 1973-2001. It is argued that some stochastic trends in macro...

A version of the Translog demand system is compared with the Almost Ideal demand model within a time series setting, where variables are nonstationary, by testing both models for the theoretical demand propositions of 'homogeneity, symmetry and negativity' and by comparing out of sample...

Golosov and Lucas (2007) have challenged the view that infrequent price adjustments by firms explains why money has aggregate real output effects. The basis of their challenge is the 'selection effect' - re-setting firms are not selected at random, they are those firms whose prices are furthest...