We derive multivariate risk-neutral asset distributions for major US financial institutions (FIs) using option implied marginal risk-neutral asset distributions (RNDs) and probabilities of default (PoDs). The multivariate densities are estimated by combining the entropy approach, dynamic copulas...

In Europe, the financial stability mandate generally rests at the national level. But there is an important exception. Since the establishment of the Banking Union in 2014, the European Central Bank (ECB) can impose stricter regulations than the national regulator. The precondition is that the...

We propose an algorithm to model contagion in the interbank market via what we term the credit quality channel. In existing models on contagion via interbank credit, external shocks to banks often spread to other banks only in case of a default. In contrast, shocks are transmitted via asset...

Recent literature has proposed new methods for measuring the systemic risk of financial institutions based on observed stock returns. In this paper we examine the reliability and robustness of such risk measures, focusing on CoVaR, marginal expected shortfall, and option-based tail risk...

We look at the effect of capital rules on a banking system that is connected through correlated credit exposures and interbank lending. The rules, which combine individual bank characteristics and interconnectivity measures of interbank lending, are to minimize a measure of system-wide losses....

Recent literature has proposed new methods for measuring the systemic risk of financial institutions based on observed stock returns. In this paper we examine the reliability and robustness of such risk measures, focusing on CoVaR, marginal expected shortfall, and option-based tail risk...

In Europe, the financial stability mandate generally rests at the national level. But there is an important exception. Since the establishment of the Banking Union in 2014, the European Central Bank (ECB) can impose stricter regulations than the national regulator. The precondition is that the...

When banks choose similar investment strategies, the financial system becomes vulnerable to common shocks. Banks decide about their investment strategy ex-ante based on a private belief about the state of the world and a social belief formed from observing the actions of peers. When the social...

Correlated defaults and systemic risk are clearly priced in credit portfolio securities such as CDOs or index CDSs. In this paper we study an extensive CDX data set for evidence whether correlated defaults are also present in the underlying CDS market. We develop a cash flow based top-down...

The US credit boom has been identified as one of the causes of the global financial crisis and the resulting debt overhang is seen as the primary reason for the weak economic recovery. Most of the existing literature links the credit boom to the emergence of the shadow banking system. This paper...