We develop a four-factor model intended to capture size, value, and credit rating transition patterns in excess returns for a panel of predominantly mid- and large-cap entities. Using credit transition matrices and rating histories from 48 US issuers, we provide evidence to support a...

A key theoretical prediction in financial economics is that under risk neutrality and rational expectations a currency's forward rates should form unbiased predictors of future spot rates. Yet scores of empirical studies report negative slope coefficients from regressions of spot rates on...

Shocks to net migration matter for the business cycles of some countries. Using an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of a small open economy and a structural vector autoregression, we find that migration shocks account for a considerable proportion of the variability...

We contribute to research on mixed-frequency regressions by introducing an innovative Bayesian approach. Based on a new “high-frequency” identification scheme, we provide novel empirical evidence of identifying uncertainty shock for the US economy. As main findings, we document a “temporal...

The study concentrates on an analysis of the Czech stock market performed by an application of DCC MV GARCH model of Engle (2002). Data sample including years from 1994 to 2009 is represented by daily returns of Prague Stock Exchange index and other 11 major stock indices. There is found an...

This paper tries to explain different nature of the dynamics during the upward and downward part of the last house price cycle in Spain. Covered bonds are introduced as an instrument which may accelerate a house price boom, while it may also serve as a source of correction to overvalued house...

This paper analyzes the impact of monetary policy during periods of low and high financial stress in the US economy using a Threshold Vector Autoregression model. There is evidence that expansionary monetary policy is effective during periods of high financial stress with larger responses having...

We study the effects of financial uncertainty on investment dynamics in the U.S. using a vector autoregression with drifting parameters and stochastic volatilities. We find time-varying negative effects of financial uncertainty shocks on investment. These effects have declined in the post-WWII...

We estimate a time-varying parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) with stochastic volatility using post- WWII U.S. data to study the effects of uncertainty shocks on inflation. We find the response of inflation to be statistically insignificant until mid-to-late 1990s and negative thereafter. Our findings...

With nominal interest rates currently at or near their zero lower bound (ZLB) in many major economies, it has become untenable to apply Gaussian affine term structure models (GATSMs) while ignoring their inherent non-zero probabilities of negative interest rates. In this article I modify GATSMs...