Showing 1 - 10 of 72
We study the response of a three-sector commodity-exporter small open economy to a commodity price boom. When the economy has access to international borrowing and lending, a temporary commodity price boom brings about the standard wealth effect that stimulates demand and has long-run...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963083
The business cycles of advanced economies are synchronized. Standard macro models fail to explain that fact. This paper presents a simple model of a two-country, two-traded-good, complete-financial-markets world in which country-specific productivity shocks generate business cycles that are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012960598
This paper analyzes the effects of output volatility shocks and of risk appetite shocks on the dynamics of consumption, trade flows and the real exchange rate, in a two-country world with recursive preferences and complete financial markets. When the risk aversion coefficient exceeds the inverse...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013011666
The paper investigates the impact of Asia's demand rebalancing and supply-side productivity changes on long-term economic growth in Asia and worldwide. Results from a panel vector autoregression model show that a productivity-neutral demand rebalancing shock has no permanent effect on Asian...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012944405
Standard macro models cannot explain why real exchange rates are volatile and disconnected from macro aggregates. Recent research argues that models with persistent growth rate shocks and recursive preferences can solve that puzzle. I show that this result is highly sensitive to the structure of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013044499
The current account in developed countries is highly persistent and volatile in comparison to their output growth. The standard intertemporal current account model with rational expectations (RE) fails to explain the observed current account and consumption dynamics. The RE model extended with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012908417
The world will experience dramatic demographic change over this century. This paper examines the impacts of this global demographic change on the Australian economy at both the aggregate and sectoral levels in a global multi-region and multi-sector general equilibrium model. Using a detailed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012838076
The world has been experiencing dramatic demographic change since the 1950s, with almost all countries facing ageing challenges this coming century. However, the timing and speed of this demographic transition are significantly asymmetric across countries. This paper examines the impacts of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012838254
This paper studies the impact of commodity terms of trade (CToT) volatility on economic growth (and its sources) in a sample of 69 commodity-dependent countries, and assesses the role of Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) and quality of institutions in their long-term growth performance. Using annual...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963315
This paper empirically addresses the hypothesis that of the external commodity based sector, Chinese resource demand is the most important driver of emerging market economy business cycles using Brazil as a representative case. Using a structural VAR to examine the effects of Chinese resource...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012910668