This investigation aims to explain and quantify the deviations of the Taylor Rule. A novel three-step econometric procedure designed to reflect the data-rich environment in which central banks operate is proposed using information for 229 macroeconomic series. This procedure can be applied to...

During the past thirty years, euro area countries have undergone significant changes and experienced diverse shocks. We aim to investigate which variables have consistently supported growth in this tumultuous period. The paper unfolds in three parts. First, we assemble a set of 35 real,...

In the context of recent developments with cryptocurrencies, as well as the potential rise of central bank digital currencies, we present a new visualisation of money. Using three novel figures, we distinguish between the relevant mechanisms, technologies, recordkeeping, and transactions of...

When the central bank has information that can help the private sector predict the future better, should it communicate such information to the public? In a simple New Keynesian model, such Delphic forward guidance unambiguously reduces ex ante welfare by increasing the variability of inflation...

We propose a methodology to gauge the uncertainty in output gap nowcasts across a large number of commonly deployed vector autoregressions in US inflation and various measures of the output gap. Our approach constructs ensemble nowcast densities using a linear opinion pool. This yields...

This paper examines Australia’s terms of trade boom since 2003 with a particular interest in quantifying the links between the terms of trade and sectoral performance and identifying an associated ‘secondary services boom’. Comparative static general equilibrium modelling and empirical...

We estimate a nonlinear VAR to quantify the impact of economic policy uncertainty shocks originating in the US on the Canadian unemployment rate in booms and busts. We find strong evidence in favor of asymmetric spillover effects. Unemployment in Canada is shown to react to uncertainty shocks in...

This paper evaluates how adaptive learning agents weight different pieces of information when forming expectations with a recursive least squares algorithm. The analysis is based on a renewed and more general non-recursive representation of the learning algorithm, namely, a penalized weighted...

Although EME central banks actively intervene in currency markets, there is a long-running debate as to its effectiveness in affecting exchange rates. In this study, we use unique daily data on currency interventions in Mongolia to analyze the impact of these interventions on the changes in the...

The asymptotic distributions of the recursive out-of-sample forecast accuracy test statistics depend on stochastic integrals of Brownian motion when the models under comparison are nested. This often complicates their implementation in practice because the computation of their asymptotic...