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How Experts Decide : Preferences or Private Assessments on a Monetary Policy Committee?

Hansen, Stephen - 2013

Using voting data from the Bank of England, we show that different individual assessments of the economy strongly influence votes after controlling for individual policy preferences. We estimate that internal members form more precise assessments than externals and are also more hawkish, though...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013083495

Strategic Central Bank Communication : Discourse and Game -Theoretic Analyses of the Bank of Japan's Monthly Report

Kawamura, Kohei - 2016

We conduct a discourse analysis of the Bank of Japan's Monthly Report and examine its characteristics in relation to business cycles. We find that the difference between the number of positive and negative expressions in the reports leads the leading index of the economy by approximately three...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012996817

Electricity Availability : A Precondition for Faster Economic Growth?

Best, Rohan; Burke, Paul J. - 2018

has a significant effect on subsequent economic growth. However, much of the effect disappears once suitable controls are …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014113073

Oil and Fiscal Policy Regimes

Bjørnland, Hilde Christiane; Casarin, Roberto; … - 2021

We analyse fiscal policy responses in oil rich countries by developing a Bayesian regimes-witching panel country analysis. We use parameter restrictions to identify procyclical and countercyclical fiscal policy regimes over the sample in 23 OECD and non-OECD oil producing countries. We find that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250635

The Price Elasticity of Electricity Demand in the United States : A Three-Dimensional Analysis

Burke, Paul J. - 2017

In this paper we employ a dataset of three dimensions - state, sector, and year - to estimate the short- and long-run price elasticities of state-level electricity demand in the United States. Our sample covers the period 2003-2015. We contribute to the literature by employing instrumental...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012950063

Effects of Commodity Price Shocks on Inflation : A Cross-Country Analysis

Sekine, Atsushi - 2017

year after the shock. While the effect on the level of consumer prices varies across countries, this transitory effect is … fairly robust, suggesting a low risk of a persistent second-round effect on inflation. Employing the smooth transition … autoregressive models that use past inflation as the transition variable, we also explore the possibility that the effect of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012951603

Understanding the Energy-GDP Elasticity : A Sectoral Approach

Burke, Paul J. - 2016

This paper uses per capita data for 132 countries over 1960–2010 to estimate elasticities of sectoral energy use with respect to national gross domestic product (GDP). We estimate models in both levels and growth rates and use our estimates to sectorally decompose the aggregate energy-GDP...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012986396

Replication and Robustness Analysis of 'Energy and Economic Growth in the USA : A Multivariate Approach'

Bruns, Stephan B. - 2018

We replicate Stern (1993, Energy Economics), who argues and empirically demonstrates that it is necessary (i) to use quality-adjusted energy use and (ii) to include capital and labor as control variables in order to find Granger causality from energy use to GDP. Though we could not access the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012920783

Energy intensity, growth and technical change

Shanker, Akshay - 2018

World and U.S. energy intensities have declined over the past century, falling at an average rate of approximately 1.2–1.5 percent a year. The decline has persisted through periods of stagnating or even falling energy prices, suggesting the decline is driven in large part by autonomous...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012910420

An Analysis of the Global Oil Market Using SVARMA Models

Raghavan, Mala - 2019

The paper analyses the importance of supply versus demand shocks on the global oil market from 1974 to 2017, using a parsimonious structural vector autoregressive moving average (SVARMA) model. The superior out-of-sample forecasting performance of the reduced form VARMA compared to VAR...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012890365