The majority of financial data exhibit asymmetry and heavy tails, which makes forecasting the entire density critically important. Recently, a forecast combination methodology has been developed to combine predictive densities. We show that combining individual predictive densities that are...

We propose a new measure of high order trade, labeled HOT, based on the fraction of a sector’s downstream uses that cross a border. Because it decomposes gross output, HOT evaluates a sector’s exposure to foreign shocks abstracting altogether from observed direct trade, which we exploit to...