Since the global financial crisis of 2007/2008, there has been increased attention on inflation expectations and the use of central bank communication as a tool to achieve a central bank’s objective for inflation. However, much of this research analyses the survey data with limited...

Inflation is a monetary policy outcome, but in the short to medium term, price and wage decisions are co-determined by the public and private sectors. Many central banks have adopted transparency as a strategic policy approach, whereby communication of monetary policy goals is used as a public...

Inflation expectations surveys are receiving increasing attention. There is no optimal approach and often limited discussion of key characteristics of individual surveys. We use a South African dataset to argue that survey design should be given far more attention as it may undermine our ability...

Monetary policy relies on managing the inflation expectations of the public in order to influence prices (inflation). Relying on the South African experience we argue that most of the general public are only exposed to the communication of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) via the media....

This paper examines the demographic determinants of inflation expectations in South Africa. Five surveys covering the period 2006-2016, and consisting of over 12000 observations were empirically examined using time series, cross-sectional, censored and quantile regressions. We assess whether...

The spillover effects of interconnectedness between financial assets are decomposed into both sources of shocks and whether they amplify or dampen volatility conditions in the target market. We use historical decompositions to rearrange information from a VAR which includes sources, direction...

In this paper we investigate dynamics of global inflation and short-run inflation expectations. We estimate a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model estimated using Bayesian techniques. We then explore the effect of three source of inflationary pressure that could drive up inflation...

This paper examines the monetary policy transmission mechanism in four systemically important economies. The impact of monetary policy is found to be broadly comparable for China, the US, the Eurozone, and Japan. Identifying a role for the financial sector is essential to unpacking various...

We simulate the impact on the nonbank liabilities of banks in a multiplex interbank environment arising from changes in currency exposure. Currency shocks as a source of financial contagion in the banking sector have not, so far, been considered. Our model considers two sources of contagion:...

This paper extends the Dincer and Eichengreen (2007) index of central bank transparency. Improvements in transparency are notable in Central and Eastern Europe, while the index has shown much smaller rises in most other parts of the world. The pattern observed by Dincer and Eichengreen,...