Showing 1 - 10 of 453
We extend conformal inference to general settings that allow for time series data. Our proposal is developed as a randomization method and accounts for potential serial dependence by including block structures in the permutation scheme. As a result, the proposed method retains the exact,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011804937
This paper proposes an information-based inference method for partially identified parameters in incomplete models that is valid both when the model is correctly specified and when it is misspecified. Key features of the method are: (i) it is based on minimizing a suitably defined...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014461470
Given data on a scalar random variable 𝑌, a prediction set for 𝑌 with miscoverage level 𝛼 is a set of values for 𝑌 that contains a randomly drawn 𝑌 with probability 1 − 𝛼, where 𝛼 ∈ (0, 1). Among all prediction sets that satisfy this coverage property, the oracle...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015191439
Algorithms are increasingly used to aid with high-stakes decision making. Yet, their predictive ability frequently exhibits systematic variation across population subgroups. To assess the trade-off between fairness and accuracy using finite data, we propose a debiased machine learning estimator...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015419993
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002741502
Slope coefficients in rank-rank regressions are popular measures of intergenerational mobility, for instance in regressions of a child's income rank on their parent's income rank. In this paper, we first point out that commonly used variance estimators such as the homoskedastic or robust...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014416045
We consider estimation and inference for a regression coefficient in panels with interactive fixed effects (i.e., with a factor structure). We demonstrate that existing estimators and confidence intervals (CIs) can be heavily biased and size-distorted when some of the factors are weak. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015168548
In this paper we introduce various set inference problems as they appear in finance and propose practical and powerful inferential tools. Our tools will be applicable to any problem where the set of interest solves a system of smooth estimable inequalities, though we will particularly focus on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009492357
We analyze the identification and estimation of parameters β satisfying the incomplete linear moment restrictions E(z T(x β-y)) = E(zTu(z)) where z is a set of instruments and u(z) an unknown bounded scalar function. We first provide empirically relevant examples of such a set-up. Second, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008990533
This paper develops inference and statistical decision for set-identified parameters from the robust Bayes perspective. When a model is set-identified, prior knowledge for model parameters is decomposed into two parts: the one that can be updated by data (revisable prior knowledge) and the one...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009008702