Recent tests for the convergence hypothesis derive from regressing average growth rates on initial levels: a negative initial coefficient is interpreted as convergence. These tests turn out to be plagued by Galton's classical fallacy of regression towards the mean. Using a dynamic version of...

In this paper, we argue that measured (RPI) inflation is conceptually mismatched with core inflation: the difference is more than just "measurement error". We propose a technique for measuring core inflation, based on an explicit long-run economic hypothesis. Core inflation is defined as that...

The convergence hypothesis has generated a huge empirical literature: this paper critically reviews some of the earlier key findings, clarifies their implications, and relates them to more recent results. Particular attention is devoted to interpreting convergence empirics. The main findings...

This paper considers unit root regressions in data having simultaneously extensive cross-section and time-series variation. The standard least-squares estimators in such data structures turn out to have an asymptotic distribution that is neither Op(T-1) Dickey-Fuller, nor Op(N-?) normal and...

This paper models fluctuations in regional disaggregates as a nonstationary, dynamically evolving distribution. Doing so enables study of the dynamics of aggregate fluctuations jointly with those of the rich cross-section of regional disaggregates. For the US, the leading state - regardless of...

The US economy is still suffering from its most severe recession in seven decades. In the first of a series of US Election Analyses, Ethan Ilzetzki covers the key issue of taxes, spending and public debt, a major point of disagreement between the two candidates, President Obama and Governor Romney.

The ability of the next US president to rein in spending on healthcare and improve the productivity of the healthcare system is largely going to determine the country's fiscal future. That is one of the conclusions of the latest in a series of US Election Analyses , published by the Centre for...

Until some political mechanism creates incentives to elect moderate representatives who can reach across the ideological divide, the US seems destined to heightened levels of policy uncertainty for many years to come. Some research suggests that such uncertainty, particularly over economic...