We present growth scenarios for 147 countries to 2050, based on MaGE (Macroeconometrics of the Global Economy), a three-factor production function that includes capital, labour and energy. We improve on the literature by accounting for the energy constraint through dynamic modelling of energy...

This paper documents time variation in domestic fiscal policy multipliers in Germany, the UK and the US, and in cross-border fiscal spillovers from Germany to the seven largest European Union economies. We propose two VAR models which incorporate three quot;global factorsquot; representing...

Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the world economy (MIRAGE), we simulate the impacts of the most recent drafts circulated in the multilateral trade negotiations arena, augmented by a modest outcome of the negotiation in services.The liberalization of tariffs is implemented...

Economic projections for the world economy, particularly in relation to the construction of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) baselines, are generally rather conservative and take scant account of the wide range of possible evolutions authorized by the underlying economic mechanisms...

This paper aims to clarify the specific issues raised by trade preferences, in particular non-reciprocal ones, as they pertain to the Doha round. We evaluate the extent of tariff preferences through both a measure of the "true" preferential margin and an assessment of tariff-rate quota rents. We...

Much attention has been paid to the sharp fall in world trade associated with the economic crisis during the last quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009. Alarming forecasts have been published for the whole year of 2009 and several explanations have been offered. In particular, beyond the...