Showing 1 - 10 of 418
Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about market expectations. Exploiting this information has proved difficult in practice, because the presence of a timevarying risk premium often renders the futures price a poor measure of the market expectation of the price of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083547
This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and the four preceding NBER-dated U.S. recessions. We generate forecasts from six different models of the U.S. economy and compare them to professional forecasts from the Federal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008530347
A central tenet of inflation targeting is that establishing and maintaining well-anchored inflation expectations are essential. In this paper, we reexamine the role of key elements of the inflation targeting framework towards this end, in the context of an economy where economic agents have an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791794
We present a decision theoretic framework with agents that are learning about the behavior of market determined … about equilibrium prices, so that learning about price behavior, as in Adam, Marcet and Nicolini (2008), is fully consistent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008577809
time separable preferences strongly improves empirical performance. Learning causes momentum and mean reversion of returns … restrict consideration to learning schemes that imply only small deviations from full rationality. The findings are robust to … the particular learning rule used and the value chosen for the single free parameter introduced by learning, provided …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661886
models of expectations formation that rely on econometric learning. Some apparently natural policy rules turn out to imply … expectational instability of private agents' learning. We use the standard New Keynesian model to illustrate this problem and survey … learning. We then consider some practical concerns such as measurement errors in private expectations, observability of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666454
Many new exporters give up exporting very shortly, despite substantial entry costs; others shoot up foreign sales and expand to new destinations. We develop a model based on experimentation to rationalize these and other dynamic patterns of exporting firms. We posit that individual export...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008692316
In dynamic promotion contests, where performance measurement is noisy and ordinal, selection can be improved by biasing later stages in favor of early leaders. Even in the worst-case scenario, where noise swamps ability differences in determining relative performance, optimal bias is i) strictly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013461490
active learning possibilities has effects on the optimal interest rate rule followed by the central bank. For a wide range of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791711
. Learning about the transmission process of monetary policy is introduced by having heterogeneous agents - i.e. the central bank …. Here following Evans and Honkapohja (2001), the learning scheme we investigate is that of least-squares learning (recursive … OLS) using the Kalman filter. We find that optimal monetary policy under learning is a policy that separates estimation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114493