Purpose – The objective of this paper is to develop a model that can predict financial distress amongst public listed companies in Malaysia using the logistic regression analysis. Design/methodology/approach – The logistic regression analysis used in this paper is geared towards developing a...

Is the imprecision of economic forecasts due to the judgements of biased decision makers? This study explores decision making among expert forecasters in Sweden using semistructured interviews. The results indicate that forecasters' decision processes are characterised by intuitive, as well as...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the performance of six types of policy rules applied for Indonesia, using monthly data spanning January 1980 to December 2008. Design/methodology/approach – This paper uses deterministic simulations on a small macro model and evaluates the...

In this paper, we focus on the Granger causality test in the presence of regime shift. We apply a vector autoregressive (4) model on Swedish series of industrial output and consumer price index for the period 1980:1-1998:6. To test for causality, three different test methods namely the single...

Forecasts guide decisions in all areas of economics and finance and their value can only be understood in relation to, and in the context of, such decisions. We discuss the central role of the loss function in helping determine the forecaster's objectives and use this to present a unified...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of outward foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth. Design/methodology/approach – Two econometric approaches are used: cross-country regressions for a sample of 50 countries and time-series estimators for the USA....

Purpose – Model estimation gives students insights beyond what they can gain from textbook presentations. This paper introduces a way to make doing this easier and more effective. It introduces the program Gnu Regression, Econometrics and Time-series Library (GRETL) which may be downloaded...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to propose an empirical procedure for examining the time-varying features of cross-market correlations in selected Gulf stock markets. Design/methodology/approach – The paper directly infers the cross-market linkages from the stock data using a...

This paper examines the time-varying behaviour of beta risk and degree of volatility persistence in the daily stock returns of 30 industry portfolios consisting of firms from the NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ stock exchanges. Using an exponential ARCH (EGARCH) for this purpose, it further examines the...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyse the dividend policy of firms from a macroeconomic perspective. In order to do so inflation and real growth are also considered. Design/methodology/approach – The paper examines the relationship between dividends, corporate earnings, real...