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Portfolio Selection with Parameter and Model Uncertainty: A Multi-Prior Approach
Garlappi, Lorenzo; Uppal, Raman; Wang, Tan - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2005
In this paper, we show how an investor can incorporate uncertainty about expected returns when choosing a mean-variance optimal portfolio. In contrast to the Bayesian approach to estimation error, where there is only a single prior and the investor is neutral to uncertainty, we consider the case...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791415
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Keynes Meets Markowitz: The Trade-off Between Familiarity and Diversification
Boyle, Phelim; Garlappi, Lorenzo; Uppal, Raman; Wang, Tan - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010
assets - and Markowitz - who advocates diversification across assets. We rely on the concepts of ambiguity and ambiguity … degree of ambiguity across assets, and (ii) the standard deviation of the estimate of expected return on each asset. If the … standard deviation of the expected return estimate and the difference between the ambiguity about familiar and unfamiliar …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008468537
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Portfolio Selection with Parameter and Model Uncertainty: A Multi-Prior Approach
Garlappi, Lorenzo; Uppal, Raman; Wang, Tan - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2005
In this paper, we show how an investor can incorporate uncertainty about expected returns when choosing a mean-variance optimal portfolio. In contrast to the Bayesian approach to estimation error, where there is only a single prior and the investor is neutral to uncertainty, we consider the case...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124485
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Model Misspecification and Under-Diversification
Uppal, Raman; Wang, Tan - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2002
asset returns. Our contribution is to develop a framework that allows for ambiguity about the joint distribution of returns … for all stocks being considered for the portfolio, and also for different levels of ambiguity for the marginal … international equity returns. The calibration shows that when the overall ambiguity about the joint distribution of returns is high …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504745
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The Role of Risk Aversion and Intertemporal Substitution in Dynamic Consumption-Portfolio Choicewith Recursive Utility
Bhamra, Harjoat S.; Uppal, Raman - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2005
The objective of this paper is to understand the implications for consumption and portfolio choice of the separation of an investor’s risk aversion and elasticity of intertemporal substitution that is made possible by recursive utility, in contrast to expected utility, where the two are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661747
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Contract structure for joint production : risk and ambiguity under compensatory damages
Ryall, Michael D.; Sampson, Rachelle C. - In: Management science : journal of the Institute for … 63 (2017) 4, pp. 1232-1253
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011672903
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Asset Pricing under Rational Learning about Rare Disasters
Koulovatianos, Christos; Wieland, Volker - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011
This paper proposes a new approach for modeling investor fear after rare disasters. The key element is to take into account that investors' information about fundamentals driving rare downward jumps in the dividend process is not perfect. Bayesian learning implies that beliefs about the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009201120
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Risk Aversion in a Dynamic Asset Allocation Experiment
Brocas, Isabelle; Carrillo, Juan D; Giga, Aleksandar; … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2015
We conduct a controlled laboratory experiment where subjects dynamically choose their portfolio allocation between a safe and a risky asset. We first derive analytically the optimal allocation of an expected utility maximizer with HARA utility function. We then fit the experimental choices to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011145479
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The role of intuition and reasoning in driving aversion to risk and ambiguity
Butler, Jeff; Guiso, Luigi; Jappelli, Tullio - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011
Using a large sample of retail investors as well as experimental data we find that risk and ambiguity aversion are … positively correlated. We show the common link is decision style: intuitive thinkers tolerate more risk and ambiguity than … find that risk and ambiguity aversion vary with individual characteristics and wealth. The wealthy are less risk averse but …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008915807
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Predicting Lotto Numbers
Jørgensen, Claus Bjørn; Suetens, Sigrid; Tyran, … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011
We investigate the "law of small numbers" using a unique panel data set on lotto gambling. Because we can track individual players over time, we can measure how they react to outcomes of recent lotto drawings. We can therefore test whether they behave as if they believe they can predict lotto...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008925716