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What Caused the Early Millennium Slowdown? Evidence Based on Vector Autoregressions

Peersman, Gert - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2003

This Paper uses a simple VAR for the industrialized world (aggregate of 17 countries), the US and the euro area to analyse the underlying shocks of the recent slowdown, i.e. supply, demand, monetary policy and oil price shocks. The results of two identification strategies are compared. One is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005788917

Monetary Policy Shocks and Portfolio Choice

Fratzscher, Marcel; Saborowski, Christian; Straub, Roland - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010

The paper shows that monetary policy shocks exert a substantial effect on the size and composition of capital flows and the trade balance for the United States, with a 100 basis point easing raising net capital inflows and lowering the trade balance by 1% of GDP, and explaining about 20-25% of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008692318

Forecasting (and Explaining) US Business Cycles

Muellbauer, John; Nunziata, Luca - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2004

, inflation and interest rate volatility, oil prices (including asymmetries), structural breaks in fiscal and monetary policy, the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067520

Labour Market Asymmetries in a Monetary Union

Andersen, Torben M; Seneca, Martin - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2008

This paper takes a first step in analysing how a monetary union performs in the presence of labour market asymmetries … aggregate shocks. The implications of asymmetries for both the overall performance of the monetary union and the country …-specific situation are analysed. It is shown that asymmetries are not only critical for country-specific performance but also for the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661593

The European Phillips Curve: Does the NAIRU Exist?

Karanassou, Marika; Sala, Hector; Snower, Dennis J. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2003

This paper has two aims. First, it provides simple theoretical models that highlight two channels whereby monetary shocks have permanent real effects and the interactions between these channels. Second, it presents an empirical dynamic model, covering a panel of EU countries, and derives the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005667015

The Timing of Monetary Policy Shocks

Olivei, Giovanni; Tenreyro, Silvana - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2006

A vast empirical literature has documented delayed and persistent effects of monetary policy shocks on output. We show that this finding results from the aggregation of output impulse responses that differ sharply depending on the timing of the shock: When the monetary policy shock takes place...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005789206

Heterogenous Wage Formation Under A Common Monetary Policy

Andersen, Torben M - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2004

How does a monetary union work when labour markets are heterogeneous? Since shocks are transmitted via both trade links and the common monetary policy and propagated via labour market responses, it follows that labour market institutions may have not only national but also union-wide...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123873

The Output Gap, the Labor Wedge, and the Dynamic Behavior of Hours

Sala, Luca; Söderström, Ulf; Trigari, Antonella - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010

We use a standard quantitative business cycle model with nominal price and wage rigidities to estimate two measures of economic inefficiency in recent U.S. data: the output gap---the gap between the actual and efficient levels of output---and the labor wedge---the wedge between households'...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008642884

Business Cycle Dynamics under Rational Inattention

Mackowiak, Bartosz Adam; Wiederholt, Mirko - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010

This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with rational inattention. Households and decision-makers in firms have limited attention and decide how to allocate their attention. The paper studies the implications of rational inattention for business cycle dynamics. Impulse...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008468587

Learning as a Rational Foundation for Macroeconomics and Finance

Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011

Expectations play a central role in modern macroeconomics. The econometric learning approach, in line with the cognitive consistency principle, models agents as forming expectations by estimating and updating subjective forecasting models in real time. This approach provides a stability test for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009003380