expectations about the age at which one will leave the labor market appears to be easier for workers in jobs with well defined …

There is a widespread belief that changes in expectations may be an important independent driver of economic … emphasize the many challenges that must be addressed before a proper assessment of its role in business cycles can be …

What is the impact of surprise and anticipated policy changes when agents form expectations using adaptive learning … rather than rational expectations? We examine this issue using the standard stochastic real business cycle model with lump …-shaped response, and tend to be prominently characterized by oscillations not present under rational expectations. These fluctuations …

increase in government spending raises the demand for private goods and raises firms' expectations about what others will be …

2011 shifted expectations in oil markets, resulting in a price increase of between 3 and 13 dollars, depending on the …

What is the impact of surprise and anticipated policy changes when agents form expectations using adaptive learning … rather than rational expectations? We examine this issue using the standard stochastic real business cycle model with lump …-shaped response, and tend to be prominently characterized by oscillations not present under rational expectations. These fluctuations …

We examine the role of expectations in the Great Moderation episode. We derive theoretical restrictions in a New …-Keynesian model and test them using measures of expectations obtained from survey data, the Greenbook and bond markets. Expectations … without expectations display similar reduced form characteristics. Results are robust to changes in the structure of the …