Showing 1 - 10 of 166
If a consumer wishes to protect her retirement account from the risk of price changes in order to sustain a stable standard of living, then what price index should the account be indexed to? This paper constructs a dynamic price index (DPI) that answers this question. Unlike the existing theory...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504651
This paper uses a dynamic factor model for the quarterly changes in consumption goods’ prices to separate them into three components: idiosyncratic relative-price changes, aggregate relative-price changes, and changes in the unit of account. The model identifies a measure of “pure”...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067604
Existing methods for data interpolation or backdating are either univariate or based on a very limited number of series, due to data and computing constraints that were binding until the recent past. Nowadays large datasets are readily available, and models with hundreds of parameters are fastly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791783
Pooling forecasts obtained from different procedures typically reduces the mean square forecast error and more generally improves the quality of the forecast. In this paper we evaluate whether pooling interpolated or backdated time series obtained from different procedures can also improve the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124455
fourth and first quarters (the "cold season"). House price seasonality poses a challenge to existing models of the housing …, deterministic driver of seasonality can be amplified and revealed as deterministic seasonality in transactions and prices …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083859
sufficiently large degree of advertising seasonality to justify estimation by the LIML or Fuller-k method. Among those industries …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666809
This paper examines the relation between individual unemployment durations and incidence on the one hand, and the time-varying macroeconomic conditions in the economy on the other. We allow for calendar time effects acting on the exit probabilities for all currently unemployed. We also allow for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123747
This paper reexamines U.S. business cycle volatility since 1867. We employ dynamic factor analysis as an alternative to reconstructed national accounts. We find a remarkable volatility increase across World War I, which is reversed after World War II. While we can generate evidence of postwar...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504432
Identifying banking crises is the first step in the research on determinants of banking crises. The prevailing practice is to employ market events to identify a banking crisis. Researchers justify the usage of this method on the grounds that either direct and reliable indicators of banks’...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005497741
We show the importance of a dynamic aggregation bias in accounting for the PPP puzzle. We prove that established time-series and panel methods substantially exaggerate the persistence of real exchange rates because of heterogeneity in the dynamics of disaggregated relative prices. When...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005497901