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time separable preferences strongly improves empirical performance. Learning causes momentum and mean reversion of returns … and thereby excess volatility, persistence of price-dividend ratios, long-horizon return predictability and a risk premium … restrict consideration to learning schemes that imply only small deviations from full rationality. The findings are robust to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661886
We present a decision theoretic framework with agents that are learning about the behavior of market determined … about equilibrium prices, so that learning about price behavior, as in Adam, Marcet and Nicolini (2008), is fully consistent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008577809
We discuss the extent to which the expectation of a rare event, not present in the usual post-war sample data, but not rationally excludable from the set of possibilities – the peso problem – can affect the behaviour of rational agents and the characteristics of market equilibrium. To that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124369
Survey respondents strongly disagree about return risks and, increasingly, macroeconomic uncertainty. This may have contributed to higher asset prices through increased use of collateralisation, which allows risk-neutral investors to realise perceived gains from trade. Investors with lower risk...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084220
knowledge represents an additional distortion confronting policy, leading to greater inflation and output volatility relative to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083648
This paper proposes a simple macroeconomic model with staggered investment decisions. The expected return from investing depends on demand expectations, which are pinned down by fundamentals and history. Owing to an aggregate demand externality, investment subsidies can improve welfare in this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084252
I develop a model of (individually rational) collective reality denial in groups, organizations and markets. Whether participants' tendencies toward wishful thinking reinforce or dampen each other is shown to hinge on a simple and novel mechanism. When an agent can expect to benefit from other's...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666620
This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and the four preceding NBER-dated U.S. recessions. We generate forecasts from six different models of the U.S. economy and compare them to professional forecasts from the Federal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008530347
Expectations play a central role in modern macroeconomics. The econometric learning approach, in line with the … equilibria. Further features of learning, such as discounting of older data, use of misspecified models, or heterogeneous choice … by agents between competing models, generate novel learning dynamics. Empirical applications are reviewed and the roles …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009003380
With only minimal restrictions on security payoffs and trader preferences, noisy aggregation of heterogeneous information drives a systematic wedge between the impact of fundamentals on the price of a security, and the corresponding impact on cash flow expectations. From an ex ante perspective,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083236