This paper shows that the R² and the standard error have fatal flaws and are inadequate as accuracy tests for models with heterogeneous agents and aggregate risk. Using data from a Krusell-Smith economy, I show that approximations for the law of motion of aggregate capital for which the true...

We construct a method to solve models with heterogeneous agents and aggregate uncertainty that is simpler than existing algorithms; the aggregate law of motion is obtained neither by simulation nor by parameterization of the cross-sectional distribution, but by explicitly aggregating the...

This paper compares numerical solutions to the model of Krusell and Smith (1998) generated by different numerical algorithms. The algorithms have very similar implications for the correlations between different variables. Larger differences are observed for (i) the unconditional means and...

This paper develops a novel approach for estimating latent state variables of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models that are solved using a second-order accurate approximation. I apply the Kalman filter to a state-space representation of the second-order solution based on the...

This paper compares different solution methods for computing the equilibrium of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models with recursive preferences such as those in Epstein and Zin (1989 and 1991). Models with these preferences have recently become popular, but we know little about...

In this Paper we measure the welfare cost of fluctuations in a simple representative agent economy with non-clearing markets. The market friction we consider involves price rigidities and a voluntary exchange-rationing scheme. These features are incorporated into an otherwise standard...

We develop a method that allows one to compute incomplete-market equilibria routinely for Markovian equilibria (when they exist). The main difficulty to be overcome arises from the set of state variables. There are, of course, exogenous state variables driving the economy but, in an incomplete...

In this paper we propose a new way to formulate optimal policy based on a quadratic intertemporal welfare function where the dynamic constraint is based on a VAR model of the economy which we call the PVAR method. We argue that the VAR under control should not be derived simply by replacing the...

We study 30 vintages of FRB/US, the principal macro model used by the Federal Reserve Board staff for forecasting and policy analysis. To do this, we exploit archives of the model code, coefficients, baseline databases and stochastic shock sets stored after each FOMC meeting from the model’s...

This paper investigates the effects of introducing household production in an international real business cycle model. We show how a model driven by disturbances to the household production can account for some features of international cycles. A version of the model which considers shocks to...