We present and analyse an optimizing model which explains the counter-intuitive effects of fiscal policy in terms of expectations. If government spending follows an upward-trending stochastic process, which the public believes may fall sharply when it reaches specific `target points', then...

We consider a bargaining model of the interaction between a government and interest groups in which, unlike existing models, neither side is assumed to have all the bargaining power. The government will then find it optimal to constrain itself in the use of transfer policies to improve its...

The relation between IMF conditionality and country ownership of assistance programs is considered from a political economy perspective, focusing on the question of why conditionality is needed if it is in a country’s best interests to undertake the reform program. It is argued that...

High interest rates to defend the exchange rate signal that a government is committed to fixed exchange rates, but may also signal weak fundamentals. We test the effectiveness of the interest rate defense by disaggregating into the effects on future interest rates differentials, expectations of...

Whereas a political budget cycle was once thought to be a phenomenon of less-developed economies, some recent studies find such a cycle in a large cross-section of both developed and developing countries. We find that this result is driven by the experience of ‘new democracies’, where fiscal...

Recently developed models of exchange rate dynamics emphasize the expectational effects of infrequent intervention. This paper proposes a stylized probabilistic framework in which such effects can be studied along with realistic concerns about the sustainability of the intervention policy. In...

Using data from 17 OECD countries over the 1960-96 period and a simple theoretical framework, we investigate the impact of institutions on the relative employment of youth, women, and older individuals. Empirically, the employment prospects of these groups are especially affected by poorly...

The effect of labour turnover costs on average employment in a partial equilibrium model of labour demand, depends on the form of the revenue function, on the rates of discount and labour attrition, and on the relative size of hiring and firing costs. If discount and attrition rates are strictly...

This paper studies the distributive effects of growth when different agents' income is drawn from accumulated and non-accumulated factors of production in different proportions. It also notes that political interactions may contribute to determine factor shares and growth when income sources are...

This paper reviews theoretical and empirical aspects of the interaction between Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union and recent labour market developments. Policies meant to increase and stabilize labour incomes also tend to reduce employment and productivity: theory suggests that the latter...