We construct daily real-time indices capturing the public information on realized and anticipated economic activity. The one-month change in realized fundamentals predicts US stock returns across horizons with strongest results between a month and a quarter. The information in anticipated...

Risk-off refers to a change in risk preferences and the associated portfolio rebalancing. We identify these episodes using the switch to a polarized correlation regime of foreign-exchange returns. These risk-off transitions are relatively infrequent but noticeably increasing over time, are...

We propose a simple cross-sectional technique to extract daily latent factors from economic news releases available at different dates and frequencies. Our approach can effectively handle the large number of heterogeneous announcements that are relevant for tracking current economic conditions....

We construct daily real-time macroeconomic indices conditional on the rating of Eurozone countries. We uncover substantial explanatory power of our measures of economic fundamentals for yield dynamics beyond the traditional yield principal components. In particular, we find that the divergence...

Value stocks have higher exposure to innovations in the nominal bond risk premium than growth stocks. Since the nominal bond risk premium measures cyclical variation in the market’s assessment of future output growth, this results in a value risk premium provided that good news about future...

Any security’s expected return can be decomposed into its “carry” and its expected price appreciation, where carry is a model-free characteristic that can be observed in advance. While carry has been studied almost exclusively for currencies, we find that carry predicts returns both in the...

We solve a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in which the representative household has Epstein and Zin recursive preferences. The parameters governing preferences and technology are estimated by means of maximum likelihood using macroeconomic data and asset prices, with a...