Showing 1 - 10 of 464
The efficient markets hypothesis implies that, in the presence of rational investors, bubbles cannot develop. We analyse the trading behaviour of a sophisticated investor, a London goldsmith bank, during the South Sea bubble in 1720. The bank believed the stock to be overvalued, yet found it...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136583
Using an equilibrium asset and option pricing model in a production economy under jump diffusion, we show theoretically that the aggregated excess market returns can be predicted by the skewness risk premium, which is constructed to be the difference between the physical and the risk-neutral...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084225
This paper examines the extent to which individual investors provide liquidity to the stock market, and whether they are compensated for doing so.We show that the ability of aggregate retail order imbalances, contrarian in nature, to predict short-term future returns is significantly enhanced...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011096103
With only minimal restrictions on security payoffs and trader preferences, noisy aggregation of heterogeneous information drives a systematic wedge between the impact of fundamentals on the price of a security, and the corresponding impact on cash flow expectations. From an ex ante perspective,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083236
We present a model of quantitative trading as an automated system under human supervision. Contrary to previous literature we show that price-contingent trading is the profitable equilibrium strategy of large rational agents in efficient markets. The key ingredient is uncertainty about whether a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083393
We combine self-collected historical data from 1867 to 1907 with CRSP data from 1926 to 2012, to examine over 140 years of risk and return of one of the most popular mechanical trading strategies—momentum. We find that the momentum strategy has earned abnormally high risk-adjusted returns—a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083413
The 2005 inclusion of Fitch ratings in the Lehman composite index ratings provides a quasi-natural experiment to identify rating-based market segmentation in the corporate bond market. Split-rated bonds with favorable Fitch rating that were mechanically upgraded to investment-grade status...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083426
On September 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers Inc. announced their filing for bankruptcy. The reaction of Lehman's competitors and market participants to this bankruptcy filing announcement provides a unique field experiment of how the insolvency spills over to other financial institutions and how...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083604
Berkshire Hathaway has realized a Sharpe ratio of 0.76, higher than any other stock or mutual fund with a history of more than 30 years, and Berkshire has a significant alpha to traditional risk factors. However, we find that the alpha becomes insignificant when controlling for exposures to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083650
Any security’s expected return can be decomposed into its “carry” and its expected price appreciation, where carry is a model-free characteristic that can be observed in advance. While carry has been studied almost exclusively for currencies, we find that carry predicts returns both in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083673