Similar Search Results

Do Oil Prices Help Forecast U.S. Real GDP? The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries

Kilian, Lutz; Vigfusson, Robert J. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2012

There is a long tradition of using oil prices to forecast U.S. real GDP. It has been suggested that the predictive relationship between the price of oil and one-quarter ahead U.S. real GDP is nonlinear in that (1) oil price increases matter only to the extent that they exceed the maximum oil...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083435

Speculation in the Oil Market

Juvenal, Luciana; Petrella, Ivan - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2014

The run-up in oil prices since 2004 coincided with growing investment in commodity markets and increased price comovement among different commodities. We assess whether speculation in the oil market played a role in driving this salient empirical pattern. We identify oil shocks from a large...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084143

The effects of global shocks on small commodity-exporting economies: New evidence from Canada

Charnavoki, Valery; Dolado, Juan J. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2012

This paper presents a structural dynamic factor model of a small commodity-exporting economy using Canada as a representative case study. Combining large panel data sets of the global and Canadian economies, we first identify those demand and supply shocks that explain most of the volatility in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084371

Pitfalls in Estimating Asymmetric Effects of Energy Price Shocks

Kilian, Lutz; Vigfusson, Robert J. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009

A common view in the literature is that the effect of energy price shocks on macroeconomic aggregates is asymmetric in energy price increases and decreases. We show that widely used asymmetric vector autoregressive models of the transmission of energy price shocks are misspecified, resulting in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005000442

Inference on Impulse Response Functions in Structural VAR Models

Inoue, Atsushi; Kilian, Lutz - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011

Skepticism toward traditional identifying assumptions based on exclusion restrictions has led to a surge in the use of structural VAR models in which structural shocks are identified by restricting the sign of the responses of selected macroeconomic aggregates to these shocks. Researchers...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009493558

Do Energy Prices Respond to U.S. Macroeconomic News? A Test of the Hypothesis of Predetermined Energy Prices

Kilian, Lutz; Vega, Clara - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2008

Models that treat innovations to the price of energy as predetermined with respect to U.S. macroeconomic aggregates are widely used in the literature. For example, it is common to order energy prices first in recursively identified VAR models of the transmission of energy price shocks. Since...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114377

Neoclassical Growth and Commodity Trade

Cuñat, Alejandro; Maffezzoli, Marco - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2002

countries. Moreover, it does not necessarily yield convergence in levels for identically parameterized economies. All in all …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504435

Workers, Machines and Economic Growth

Zeira, Joseph - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1995

This paper models technology adoption as replacing workers by machines, which perform the same job in the production process. The paper shows that such modelling of technology adoption affects significantly the analysis of economic growth. This model can explain large and persistent...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504740

Tests of the `Convergence Hypothesis': A Critical Note

Cohen, Daniel - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1992

I argue in this paper that the `speed of convergence' estimated in recent works on `convergence' does not capture … `actual' convergence towards a steady state, but rather conditional dynamics towards a moving target. Although this … conditional convergence can be taken to imply that there are decreasing returns to such storable assets as physical and human …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504752

Global Divergence in Growth Regressions

Battisti, Michele; Di Vaio, Gianfranco; Zeira, Joseph - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2013

This paper extends the standard growth regression model by adding an assumption that a country follows the global technology frontier either fully or partially. This additional assumption changes significantly the growth regression model and its results in three main ways. First, it shows that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083897