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International Trade, Factor Mobility and Trade Costs

Norman, Victor D; Venables, Anthony J - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1993

We consider a Heckscher-Ohlin model in which goods and factors of production can be traded, but trade involves transactions costs. Goods trade alone will not equalize factor prices, so there is an incentive for trade in factors of production. Whether goods or factors are traded depends on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123958

Leading Indicators: What Have We Learned?

Marcellino, Massimiliano - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2005

the most relevant recent developments in this field of economic forecasting. To begin with, we analyse the problem of … leading indicator based forecasts, and review the recent literature on the forecasting performance of leading indicators. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666459

Predicting Turning Points in the UK Inflation Cycle

Artis, Michael J - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1994

We set out a reference chronology for annual UK inflation, identifying nine complete cycles between 1958 and 1990. Inflation over this period is asymmetric, falling more quickly than it rises. Leading indicators are also proposed, with composite shorter and longer leading indicators constructed....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005789113

Term Structure Forecasting: No-Arbitrage Restrictions vs Large Information Set

Favero, Carlo A.; Niu, Linlin; Sala, Luca - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2007

This paper addresses the issue of forecasting the term structure. We provide a unified state-space modelling framework … forecasting performance of two crucial modelling choices, i.e. the imposition of no-arbitrage restrictions and the size of the … information set used to extract factors. Using US yield curve data, we find that: a. macro factors are very useful in forecasting …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005497801

Comparing Alternative Predictors Based on Large-Panel Factor Models

D'Agostino, Antonello; Giannone, Domenico - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2007

This paper compares the predictive ability of the factor models of Stock and Watson (2002) and Forni, Hallin, Lippi, and Reichlin (2005) using a large panel of US macroeconomic variables. We propose a nesting procedure of comparison that clarifies and partially overturns the results of similar...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791574

Forecasting Large Datasets with Bayesian Reduced Rank Multivariate Models

Carriero, Andrea; Kapetanios, George; Marcellino, … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009

The paper addresses the issue of forecasting a large set of variables using multivariate models. In particular, we … propose three alternative reduced rank forecasting models and compare their predictive performance for US time series with the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008528528

Commodity prices, commodity currencies, and global economic developments

Groen, Jan J. J.; Pesenti, Paolo - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010

statistical benchmarks, and revisit the forecasting performance of changes in commodity currencies as efficient predictors of … least squares (PLS) regression to extract dynamic factors from the data set. Our forecasting analysis considers ten …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008530384

Why Pay More? Corporate Tax Avoidance Through Transfer Pricing in OECD Countries

Bartelsman, Eric J; Beetsma, Roel - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2000

This paper presents evidence of profit shifting in response to differences in corporate tax rates for a large selection of OECD countries. In our estimates we control for the effects of tax rate changes on real activity. Our baseline estimates suggest that, on average, a unilateral increase in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504504

Fear of Outsourcing: Is It Justified?

Amiti, Mary; Wei, Shang-Jin - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2004

The recent media and political attention on service outsourcing from developed to developing countries gives the impression that outsourcing is exploding. As a result, workers in industrial countries are anxious about job losses. This Paper aims to establish what are the hypes and what are the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504627

Sovereign Risk, Credibility and the Gold Standard: 1870-1913 versus 1925-31

Obstfeld, Maurice; Taylor, Alan M. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2003

What determines sovereign risk? We study the London bond market from the 1870s to the 1930s. Our findings support conventional wisdom concerning the limited credibility of the interwar gold standard. Before 1914, gold standard adherence effectively signalled credibility and shaved 40 to 60 basis...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005497898