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The estimation of large Vector Autoregressions with stochastic volatility using standard methods is computationally very demanding. In this paper we propose to model conditional volatilities as driven by a single common unobserved factor. This is justified by the observation that the pattern of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083279
forecasting accuracy and then perform a structural exercise focused on the effect of a monetary policy shock on the macroeconomy …. Results show that BVARs estimated on the basis of hundred variables perform well in forecasting and are suitable for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666834
The paper addresses the issue of forecasting a large set of variables using multivariate models. In particular, we … propose three alternative reduced rank forecasting models and compare their predictive performance for US time series with the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008528528
In this paper we discuss how the forecasting performance of Bayesian VARs is affected by a number of specification … lag length and of both; compare alternative approaches to h-step ahead forecasting (direct, iterated and pseudo …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008854551
: a legal institution aimed at coordinating lender interests in borrower distress. We find that the existence of small … banks, and the severity of the distress shock to the borrower. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504452
Firms that buy distressed and bankrupt companies or some of these companies’ assets earn excess returns that are at least 1.6 percentage points higher than when they make regular acquisitions. These returns come at the expense of the target firm’s shareholders, while overall wealth gains are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083439
creditor pools, a legal institution aiming at coordinating lender interests in borrower distress. We report three major … to be the number of banks, the distribution of lending shares, and the severity of the distress shock. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123994
our approach is superior to both models that exclude macro information and best fitting naive forecasting models. While …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504257
We propose a new econometric estimation method for analysing the probability of leaving un-employment using uncompleted spells from repeated cross-section data, which can be especially useful when panel data are not available. The proposed method-of-moments-based estimator has two important...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504490
The vocational employment training program is the most ambitious and expensive training program in Sweden and a cornerstone of labor market policy. We analyze its causal effects on the individual transition rate from unemployment to employment by exploiting variation in the timing of treatment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661564