We define risky arbitrages as self-financing trading strategies that have a strictly positive market price but a zero expected cumulative payoff. A continuous time cointegrated system is used to model risky arbitrages as arising from a mean-reverting mispricing component. We derive the optimal...

Changes in nominal interest rates must be due to either movements in real interest rates, expected inflation, or the inflation risk premium. We develop a term structure model with regime switches, time-varying prices of risk and inflation to identify these components of the nominal yield curve....

Regime switching models can match the tendency of financial markets to often change their behavior abruptly and the phenomenon that the new behavior of financial variables often persists for several periods after such a change. While the regimes captured by regime switching models are identified...